arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 20, 2026 — 17:38:35 EST
McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many applications the system is only partially observed, making inference very challenging when both drift and...
In contrast to evaluating treatment effects, causal attribution analysis focuses on identifying the key factors responsible for an observed outcome. For two binary exposure variables and a binary outcome variable, researchers need to assess not only the likelihood that an observed outcome was caused by a particular exposure, but also...
We address the following question: given a collection $\{\mathbf{A}^{(1)}, \dots, \mathbf{A}^{(N)}\}$ of independent $d \times d$ random matrices drawn from a common distribution $\mathbb{P}$, what is the probability that the centralizer of $\{\mathbf{A}^{(1)}, \dots, \mathbf{A}^{(N)}\}$ is trivial? We provide lower bounds on this...
This paper introduces a new modeling perspective in the public mental health domain to provide a robust interpretation of the relations between anxiety and depression, and the demographic and temporal factors. This perspective particularly leverages the Rashomon Effect, where multiple models exhibit similar predictive performance but...
Accurately estimating the sensitivity of explosive materials is a potentially life-saving task which requires standardised protocols across nations. One of the most widely applied procedures worldwide is the so-called '1-In-6' test from the United Nations (UN) Manual of Tests in Criteria, which estimates a 'limiting stimulus' for a...
Although complete randomization is widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference, covariate imbalance can still arise by chance in finite samples. Rerandomization has emerged as an effective tool to improve covariate balance across treatment groups and enhance the precision of causal effect estimation. While existing work...
Clinical AI systems frequently suffer performance decay post-deployment due to temporal data shifts, such as evolving populations, diagnostic coding updates (e.g., ICD-9 to ICD-10), and systemic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing this ``aging'' effect via frequent retraining is often impractical due to computational costs...
Extreme weather events are becoming more common, with severe storms, floods, and prolonged precipitation affecting communities worldwide. These shifts in climate patterns pose a direct threat to the insurance industry, which faces growing exposure to weather-related damages. As claims linked to extreme weather rise, insurance...
The two popular systemic risk measures CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) and CoES (Conditional Expected Shortfall) have recently been receiving growing attention on applications in economics and finance. In this paper, we study the estimations of extreme CoVaR and CoES when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but...
Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) enhances the expressiveness of variational families through hierarchical semi-implicit distributions, but the intractability of their densities makes standard ELBO-based optimization biased. Recent score-matching approaches to SIVI (SIVI-SM) address this issue via a minimax formulation, at...
Background: Diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies, like etiological studies, are susceptible to various biases including reference standard error bias, partial verification bias, spectrum effect, confounding, and bias from misassumption of conditional independence. While directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are widely used in etiological...
Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible. However, justifying the validity of the instrument often poses a significant challenge. In this...
Analysis of biological rhythm data often involves performing least squares trigonometric regression, which models the oscillations of a response over time as a sum of sinusoidal components. When the response is not normally distributed, an investigator will either transform the response before applying least squares trigonometric...
In this paper, we introduce a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution by developing interpretable and tractable decision rules that prescribe decisions using covariates. We first introduce the causal Sinkhorn discrepancy...
Physical activity is crucial for human health. With the increasing availability of large-scale mobile health data, strong associations have been found between physical activity and various diseases. However, accurately capturing this complex relationship is challenging, possibly because it varies across different subgroups of...
Outlier detection (OD) aims to identify abnormal instances, known as outliers or anomalies, by learning typical patterns of normal data, or inliers. Performing OD under an unsupervised regime-without any information about anomalous instances in the training data-is challenging. A recently observed phenomenon, known as the...
This study uses connected vehicle data to analyze speeding behavior on residential roads. A scalable pipeline processes trajectory data and supplements missing speed limits to generate summaries at OpenStreetMap's way ID level. The findings reveal a highly skewed distribution of both aggressive and reckless speeding. Based on a case...
Maronna's and Tyler's $M$-estimators are among the most widely used robust estimators for scatter matrices. However, when the dimension of observations is relatively high, their performance can substantially deteriorate in certain situations, particularly in the presence of clustered outliers. To address this issue, we propose an...
In this paper, we propose a distributed framework for reducing the dimensionality of high-dimensional, large-scale, heterogeneous matrix-variate time series data using a factor model. The data are first partitioned column-wise (or row-wise) and allocated to node servers, where each node estimates the row (or column) loading matrix via...
We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Sub-Cauchy Projection, a geometric transformation that generalizes stereographic projection by mapping Euclidean space into a spherical cap of a hyper-sphere, referred to as the complement of the dark side of the moon. We prove that our proposed method is uniformly ergodic for...
Hidden variable graphical models can sometimes imply constraints on the observable distribution that are more complex than simple conditional independence relations. These observable constraints can falsify assumptions of the model that would otherwise be untestable due to the unobserved variables and can be used to constrain...
We define two minimum distance estimators for dependent data by minimizing some approximated Maximum Mean Discrepancy distances between the true empirical distribution of observations and their assumed (parametric) model distribution. When the latter one is intractable, it is approximated by simulation, allowing to accommodate most...
Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) requires researchers to choose calibration and dichotomization thresholds, and these choices can substantially affect truth tables, minimization, and resulting solution formulas. Despite this dependency, threshold sensitivity is often examined only in an ad hoc manner because repeated analyses...
We introduce a smooth variant of the SCAD thresholding rule for wavelet denoising by replacing its piecewise linear transition with a raised cosine. The resulting shrinkage function is odd, continuous on R, and continuously differentiable away from the main threshold, yet retains the hallmark SCAD properties of sparsity for small...
Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs) with Matérn covariance functions have emerged as a powerful framework for modeling spatial processes due to their flexibility in capturing different features of the spatial field. However, the smoothness parameter is challenging to estimate using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which involves...