arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 21, 2026 — 01:02:24 EST
In this study, a family of distributions called cubic lower record-based transmuted is provided. A special case of this family is proposed as an alternative exponential distribution. Several statistical properties are explored. We utilize nine different methods to estimate the parameters of the suggested distribution. In order to...
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable choice because it can account for different levels of variability in the data, a feature known as...
We revisit Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (Deep LDA) from a likelihood-based perspective. While classical LDA is a simple Gaussian model with linear decision boundaries, attaching an LDA head to a neural encoder raises the question of how to train the resulting deep classifier by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We first show...
Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive model checking and comparison often fail to adequately address these features. This paper bridges...
Standard rare-event simulation techniques require exact distributional specifications, which limits their effectiveness in the presence of distributional uncertainty. To address this, we develop a novel framework for estimating rare-event probabilities subject to such distributional model risk. Specifically, we focus on computing...
We show that for unconstrained Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers, maximum-likelihood training admits pathological solutions in which class means drift together, covariances collapse, and the learned representation becomes almost non-discriminative. Conversely, cross-entropy training yields excellent accuracy but...
This paper introduces grangersearch, an R package for performing exhaustive Granger causality searches on multiple time series. The package provides: (1) exhaustive pairwise search across multiple variables, (2) automatic lag order optimization with visualization, (3) tidyverse-compatible syntax with pipe operators and non-standard...
This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to...
Understanding how educators interact and form peer networks in online professional development contexts has become increasingly important as MOOCs for educators (MOOC-Eds) proliferate. This study examines peer discussion network formation and evolution in 'The Digital Learning Transition in K-12 Schools', a MOOC-Ed offered to U.S. and...
The increasing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical settings challenges foundational assumptions underlying traditional frameworks of medical evidence. Classical statistical approaches, centered on randomized controlled trials, frequentist hypothesis testing, and static confidence intervals, were designed for fixed...
Recent works have demonstrated promising performances of neural networks on hyperbolic spaces and symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifolds. These spaces belong to a family of Riemannian manifolds referred to as symmetric spaces of noncompact type. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for developing neural networks on such...
This paper develops the algorithmic and dynamical foundations of recursive ensemble learning driven by Fibonacci-type update flows. In contrast with classical boosting Freund and Schapire (1997); Friedman (2001), where the ensemble evolves through first-order additive updates, we study second-order recursive architectures in which...
The growing frequency and intensity of wildfires pose serious threats to communities in wildland-urban interface regions. Understanding evacuation behavior is critical for effective emergency planning. This study analyzes evacuation during the 2025 Palisades and Eaton Fires using high-resolution Facebook data. We propose a...
In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function, thereby refining the classical Bayes Factor by accounting for the curvature of the likelihood...
We propose a new estimation method for the Stable Trait, Auto Regressive Trait, and State (STARTS) model, which is well known for its frequent occurrence of improper solutions. The proposed approach is implemented through a two-stage estimation procedure that combines matrix decomposition factor analysis (MDFA) based on eigenvalue...
Conformal Test Martingales (CTMs) are a standard method within the Conformal Prediction framework for testing the crucial assumption of data exchangeability by monitoring deviations from uniformity in the p-value sequence. Although exchangeability implies uniform p-values, the converse does not hold. This raises the question of...
Handling missing data in time series is a complex problem due to the presence of temporal dependence. General-purpose imputation methods, while widely used, often distort key statistical properties of the data, such as variance and dependence structure, leading to biased estimation and misleading inference. These issues become more...
This paper is motivated by evaluating the benefits of patients receiving mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices in end-stage heart failure management inference, in which hypothesis testing for a treatment effect on the risk of recurrent events is challenged in the presence of terminal events. Existing methods based on cumulative...
Bayesian model selection commonly relies on Laplace approximation or the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which assume that the effective model dimension equals the number of parameters. Singular learning theory replaces this assumption with the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), an effective dimension that can be strictly...
We introduce an operator-theoretic framework for analyzing directional dependence in multivariate time series based on order-constrained spectral non-invariance. Directional influence is defined as the sensitivity of second-order dependence operators to admissible, order-preserving temporal deformations of a designated source...
Numerous studies have shown the harmful effects of airborne pollutants on human health. Vulnerable groups and communities often bear a disproportionately larger health burden due to exposure to airborne pollutants. Thus, there is a need to design policies that effectively reduce the public health burdens while ensuring cost-effective...
In this study, we introduce a sophisticated generative conditional strategy designed to impute missing values within datasets, an area of considerable importance in statistical analysis. Specifically, we initially elucidate the theoretical underpinnings of the Generative Conditional Missing Imputation Networks (GCMI), demonstrating...
Modern optimization problems in scientific and engineering domains often rely on expensive black-box evaluations, such as those arising in physical simulations or deep learning pipelines, where gradient information is unavailable or unreliable. In these settings, conventional optimization methods quickly become impractical due to...
Bayesian inference in complex generative models is often obstructed by the absence of tractable likelihoods and the infeasibility of computing gradients of high-dimensional simulators. Existing likelihood-free methods for generalized Bayesian inference typically rely on gradient-based optimization or reparameterization, which can be...
Variable importance in regression analyses is of considerable interest in a variety of fields. There is no unique method for assessing variable importance. However, a substantial share of the available literature employs Shapley values, either explicitly or implicitly, to decompose a suitable goodness-of-fit measure, in the linear...