arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 21, 2026 — 23:10:03 EST
This paper considers estimation and model selection of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR). Conventional quantile regression often yields undesirable crossing quantile curves, violating the monotonicity of quantiles. To address this issue, we propose a simplex quantile vector autoregression (SQVAR) framework, which transforms the...
This study presents a cluster-based Bayesian SIRD model to analyze the epidemiology of chickenpox (varicella) in India, utilizing data from 1990 to 2021. We employed an age-structured approach, dividing the population into juvenile, adult, and elderly groups, to capture the disease's transmission dynamics across diverse demographic...
The aim of this paper is to use Maximum Likelihood (ML) Classification on multispectral data by means of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Maximum Likelihood is a supervised classification algorithm which is based on the Classical Bayes theorem. It makes use of a discriminant function to assign pixel to the class with the...
Accurate prediction of structural dynamics is imperative for preserving digital twin fidelity throughout operational lifetimes. Parametric models with fixed nominal parameters often omit critical physical effects due to simplifications in geometry, material behavior, damping, or boundary conditions, resulting in model form errors...
We show how to construct the implied copula process of response values from a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with prior on the leaf node variances. This copula process, defined on the covariate space, can be paired with any marginal distribution for the dependent variable to construct a flexible distributional BART...
Drug overdose deaths, including from opioids, remain a significant public health threat to the United States (US). To abate the harms of opioid misuse, understanding its prevalence at the local level is crucial for stakeholders in communities to develop response strategies that effectively use limited resources. Although there exist...
Feature selection (FS) is essential for biomarker discovery and clinical predictive modeling. Over the past decades, methodological literature on FS has become rich and mature, offering a wide spectrum of algorithmic approaches. However, much of this methodological progress has not fully translated into applied biomedical research....
Simulation studies are used to understand the properties of statistical methods. A key luxury in many simulation studies is knowledge of the true value (i.e. the estimand) being targeted. With this oracle knowledge in-hand, the researcher conducting the simulation study can assess across repeated realizations of the data how well a...
I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach, termed Stochastic Latent Differential Inference (SLDI), embeds an Itô SDE in the latent space of...
One-shot prediction enables rapid adaptation of pretrained foundation models to new tasks using only one labeled example, but lacks principled uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, standard split conformal methods are inefficient in the one-shot setting due to data splitting...
In the advent of big data and machine learning, researchers now have a wealth of congressional candidate ideal point estimates at their disposal for theory testing. Weak relationships raise questions about the extent to which they capture a shared quantity -- rather than idiosyncratic, domain-specific factors -- yet different measures...
Multi-group classification arises in many prediction and decision-making problems, including applications in epidemiology, genomics, finance, and image recognition. Although classification methods have advanced considerably, much of the literature focuses on binary problems, and available extensions often provide limited flexibility...
This work approaches the multidimensional scaling problem from a novel angle. We introduce a scalable method based on the h-plot, which inherently accommodates asymmetric proximity data. Instead of embedding the objects themselves, the method embeds the variables that define the proximity to or from each object. It is straightforward...
Injection molding is a critical manufacturing process, but controlling warpage remains a major challenge due to complex thermomechanical interactions. Simulation-based optimization is widely used to address this, yet traditional methods often overlook the uncertainty in model parameters. In this paper, we propose a data-driven...
Archetypal analysis serves as an exploratory tool that interprets a collection of observations as convex combinations of pure (extreme) patterns. When these patterns correspond to actual observations within the sample, they are termed archetypoids. For the first time, we propose applying archetypoid analysis to nominal observations,...
Modern data analysis increasingly requires flexible conditional inference P(X_B | X_A) where (X_A, X_B) is an arbitrary partition of observed variable X. Existing approaches are either restricted to a fixed conditioning structure or depend strongly on the distribution of conditioning masks during training. To address these...
Regression models, where the response variable is circular, are common in areas such as biology, geology and meteorology. A typical model assumes that the conditional distribution of the response follows a von-Mises distribution. However, this assumption is inadequate when the response variable is multimodal. For this reason, in this...
Motivated by recent work on the experts problem in the streaming model, we consider the experts problem in the sliding window model. The sliding window model is a well-studied model that captures applications such as traffic monitoring, epidemic tracking, and automated trading, where recent information is more valuable than older...
Standard Bayesian inference schemes are infeasible for inverse problems with computationally expensive forward models. A common solution is to replace the model with a cheaper surrogate. To avoid overconfident conclusions, it is essential to acknowledge the surrogate approximation by propagating its uncertainty. At present, a variety...
Gaussian copulas are widely used to estimate multivariate distributions and relationships. We present algorithms for estimating Gaussian copula correlations that ensure differential privacy. We first convert data values into sets of two-way tables of counts above and below marginal medians. We then add noise to these counts to satisfy...
Borrowing external data can improve estimation efficiency but may introduce bias when populations differ in covariate distributions or outcome variability. A proper balance needs to be maintained between the two datasets to justify the borrowing. We propose a propensity score weighting borrowing-by-parts power prior (PSW-BPP) that...
In medical diagnostics, leveraging multiple biomarkers can significantly improve classification accuracy compared to using a single biomarker. While existing methods based on exponential tilting or density ratio models have shown promise, their assumptions may be overly restrictive in practice. In this paper, we adopt a flexible...
We study distribution-on-distribution regression problems in which a response distribution depends on multiple distributional predictors. Such settings arise naturally in applications where the outcome distribution is driven by several heterogeneous distributional sources, yet remain challenging due to the nonlinear geometry of the...
In extreme value analysis, tail behavior of a heavy-tailed data distribution is modeled by a Pareto-type distribution in which the so-called extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behavior. For heavy-tailed data obtained from multiple population subgroups, or areas, this study efficiently predicts the EVIs of all areas using...
While multimodal mobility systems have the potential to bring many benefits to travelers, drivers, the environment, and traffic congestion, such systems typically involve multiple non-cooperative decision-makers who may selfishly optimize their own objectives without considering the overall system benefits. This paper aims to...