arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 21, 2026 — 22:02:18 EST
Estimating conditional means using only the marginal means available from aggregate data is known as the ecological inference problem. We reassess this literature, arguing that it has understudied two issues: how practitioners should control for confounding, and how methodologists can leverage the linearity inherent in the structure...
This paper develops an approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems by integrating probabilistic input forecasting with physics-informed output prediction. Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems is important for the automatic control and optimization of physical processes, enabling more precise...
Event history data from sports competitions have recently drawn increasing attention in sports analytics to generate data-driven strategies. Such data often exhibit self-excitation in the event occurrence and dependence within event clusters. The conventional event models based on gap times may struggle to capture those features. In...
Although extensive research exists in spatial modeling, few studies have addressed finite mixture model-based clustering methods for spatial data. Finite mixture models, especially Gaussian mixture models, particularly suffer from high dimensionality due to the number of free covariance parameters. This study introduces a spatial...
In the post-pandemic era of COVID-19, hospitalization remains a primary public health concern and wastewater surveillance has become an important tool for monitoring its dynamics at the level of community. However, there is usually no sufficient information to know the infection process that results in both wastewater viral signals...
Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural networks and foundation models has now given rise to a new paradigm in statistical modeling, in...
Detecting multiple structural breaks in high-dimensional data remains a challenge, particularly when changes occur in higher-order moments or within complex manifold structures. In this paper, we propose REAMP (Resonance-Enhanced Analysis of Multi-change Points), a novel framework that integrates optimal transport theory with the...
Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed compositions. Existing methods often fail to simultaneously address key challenges inherent in...
Precision matrix estimation is a fundamental topic in multivariate statistics and modern machine learning. This paper proposes an adversarially perturbed precision matrix estimation framework, motivated by recent developments in adversarial training. The proposed framework is versatile for the precision matrix problem since, by...
Individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) aim to improve clinical outcomes by assigning treatment based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing methods often struggle with high-dimensional covariates, limiting accuracy, interpretability, and real-world applicability. We propose a novel sufficient dimension reduction...
Connections of a spectral nature are formed between Gibbs samplers and their blocked and collapsed variants. The solidarity principle of the spectral gap for full Gibbs samplers is generalized to different cycles and mixtures of Gibbs steps. This generalized solidarity principle is employed to establish that every cycle and mixture of...
The analysis of high-dimensional time series data has become increasingly important across a wide range of fields. Recently, a method for constructing the minimum information Markov kernel on finite state spaces was established. In this study, we propose a statistical model based on a parametrization of its dependence function, which...
In this paper, we investigate accelerated life testing (ALT) models based on the Weibull distribution with stress-dependent shape and scale parameters. Temperature and voltage are treated as stress variables influencing the lifetime distribution. Data are assumed to be collected under Progressive Hybrid Censoring (PHC) and Adaptive...
A novel framework for density estimation under expectation constraints is proposed. The framework minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the estimated density and a prior, subject to the constraints that the expected value of a set of functions adopts or exceeds given values. The framework is generalized to include regularization...
Traditional filtering algorithms for state estimation -- such as classical Kalman filtering, unscented Kalman filtering, and particle filters -- show performance degradation when applied to nonlinear systems whose uncertainty follows arbitrary non-Gaussian, and potentially multi-modal distributions. This study reviews recent...
Random forests (RFs) are widely used for prediction and variable importance analysis and are often believed to capture any types of interactions via recursive splitting. However, since the splits are chosen locally, interactions are only reliably captured when at least one involved covariate has a marginal effect. We introduce unity...
This paper considers covariance matrix estimation of tensor data under high dimensionality. A multi-bandable covariance class is established to accommodate the need for complex covariance structures of multi-layer lattices and general covariance decay patterns. We propose a high dimensional covariance localization estimator for tensor...
Matching markets face increasing needs to learn the matching qualities between demand and supply for effective design of matching policies. In practice, the matching rewards are high-dimensional due to the growing diversity of participants. We leverage a natural low-rank matrix structure of the matching rewards in these two-sided...
The success of deep neural networks largely depends on the statistical structure of the training data. While learning dynamics and generalization on isotropic data are well-established, the impact of pronounced anisotropy on these crucial aspects is not yet fully understood. We examine the impact of data anisotropy, represented by a...
Bayesian optimization (BO) iteratively fits a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate to accumulated evaluations and selects new queries via an acquisition function such as expected improvement (EI). In practice, BO often concentrates evaluations near the current incumbent, causing the surrogate to become overconfident and to understate...
We consider the problem of mean estimation under quantization and adversarial corruption. We construct multivariate robust estimators that are optimal up to logarithmic factors in two different settings. The first is a one-bit setting, where each bit depends only on a single sample, and the second is a partial quantization setting, in...
Marginal effects analysis is fundamental to interpreting statistical models, yet existing implementations face computational constraints that limit analysis at scale. We introduce two Julia packages that address this gap. Margins.jl provides a clean two-function API organizing analysis around a 2-by-2 framework: evaluation context...
We introduce the setting of continuous index learning, in which a function of many variables varies only along a small number of directions at each point. For efficient estimation, it is beneficial for a learning algorithm to adapt, near each point $x$, to the subspace that captures the local variability of the function $f$. We pose...
Interval-censoring frequently occurs in studies of chronic diseases where disease status is inferred from intermittently collected biomarkers. Although many methods have been developed to analyze such data, they typically assume perfect disease diagnosis, which often does not hold in practice due to the inherent imperfect clinical...
Multilayer (or multiple) networks are widely used to represent diverse patterns of relationships among objects in increasingly complex real-world systems. Identifying a common invariant subspace across network layers has become an active area of research, as such a subspace can filter out layer-specific noise, facilitate cross-network...