arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 19, 2026 — 19:22:00 EST
This paper establishes a unified non-linear regularization framework for high-dimensional $M$-estimation, encompassing both linear models and Cox's proportional hazards models. Rather than relying on traditional additive non-convex penalties which pose severe optimization challenges, the proposed paradigm embeds sparsity directly into...
Multivariate longitudinal data may exhibit non-Gaussian margins, nonlinear dynamics, and response vectors with composition that varies across waves. To account for these features, we introduce a vector drawable vine (VD-vine) copula that extends conventional drawable vine copulas from scalar to vector-valued nodes. Here, the response...
Patient-specific biomechanical models of the left ventricle can relate cardiac magnetic resonance imaging to regional myocardial material properties, but existing emulator-based studies typically treat the myocardium as mechanically homogeneous, limiting representation of localised dysfunction. We propose a Bayesian...
Time series of random objects, such as covariance matrices, probability distributions, and functional data, call for forecasting methods that do not rely on standard arithmetic operations. We introduce geodesic exponential smoothing, a generalization of exponential smoothing to time series in Hadamard spaces: the forecast level moves...
Randomized trials with limited concurrent control information---including but not limited to unequal-randomization settings---can offer ethical and practical advantages, especially in pediatric and rare diseases, but they often lose power because fewer control patients are available for direct comparison. Borrowing information from...
In physics-informed machine learning, a target function $u^*$ is learned from noisy value observations $y_i=u^*(x_i)+ \varepsilon_i$, together with differential information, given either by noisy observations $d_j=(Du^*)(z_j)+ξ_j$ or by a known physical constraint $Du^*=v$. We consider the setting where $D$ is a linear differential...
Many datasets arise as multivariate time series observed at irregular time intervals, particularly in Earth observation and astronomical measurements. Classical time-series models assume that time is discrete and observations occur at equally spaced intervals, limiting their ability to capture dynamics when observation gaps vary....
Randomized controlled trials provide internally valid estimates of treatment effects, but their results may not directly apply to broader target populations due to differences in baseline covariate distributions, adherence to treatment or variations in outcome mechanisms. Under standard transport and time-to-event identifiability...
Parametric copulas capable of capturing full-range tail dependence in both lower and upper tails are useful in many applications, including as pair-copula building blocks in vine copula models. However, it is challenging to create such copulas that have closed-form density functions, which limits their practical applicability in...
Time-to-event outcomes are central in oncology and rare diseases, where treatment effects are often summarized by differences in survival curves or Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST). In real-world data, estimating these causal effects relies on the absence of unobserved confounding, an assumption that is rarely satisfied. We...
This paper provides a self-contained proof of the rank of the pathlifting Jacobian of a DAG ReLU network by performing an induction on the network's number of hidden nodes. In fact, the induction is elementary, and the key recipe is to consider the skeleton matrix of the network, a sparse matrix encoding the network paths, and...
Kernel methods, and Gaussian Processes (GPs) in particular, require a Hilbertian distance measure---one whose square is conditionally negative definite (CND)---to guarantee positive semi-definiteness (PSD) of the kernel matrix; a condition that fails for many natural input spaces, including smooth manifolds and spaces of probability...
In the canonical Difference-in-Differences design, the control group's post-treatment change serves as an imputation of the treated group's counterfactual change in the same period, an imputation justified by parallel trends. However, differences in group composition can produce between-group differences in how outcomes would evolve...
Benford's law specifies a marginal distribution for significant digits, whereas the usual first-digit Pearson $p$-value is calibrated under an independent multinomial sampling model. We separate these statements with four constructions that share the same one-time or pooled Benford target but have different joint structures. Under a...
Gaussian Whittle-Matérn fields form a flexible class of Gaussian processes on compact metric graphs, where spatial dependence is governed by the geometry and connectivity of the network through a fractional-order stochastic partial differential equation. This paper develops a new bridge representation of these fields in the case of...
We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as...
We study the convergence of Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) gradient flows for sampling from probability distributions known up to a normalisation constant. By combining Wasserstein transport with Fisher-Rao birth-death dynamics, WFR flows balance exploration and selection. These flows have been recognised as a promising mechanism to...
In integrated Galton--Watson processes with immigration, Wei and Winnicki (1990) fitted weighted least squares (WLS) with weights $(1+X_{t-1})^{-1}$ and left open the asymptotic distribution of the resulting intercept estimator in the recurrent case. Lu (2026) bypasses this difficulty by proposing time-weighted WLS with weights $1/t$....
Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) provides low-rank representations of functional data but generally produces dense components, making it difficult to identify the localised regions contributing to dominant modes of variation. This limitation is particularly relevant in Raman spectroscopy, where spectra are observed over...
The Taylor diagram is used to evaluate and compare predictive models with observed data and has many applications in climate and environmental sciences. Three statistics of interest--the centered root-mean-squared error, standard deviation, and the product-moment correlation coefficient--are related by the law of cosines; Taylor...
Hierarchical and grouped time series arise when a multivariate time series is forced to satisfy a set of aggregation constraints, motivating forecast reconciliation methods that ensure coherent forecasts of such hierarchical structures. Many real-world applications involve discrete or bounded supports, introducing additional...
The log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) is one of the most widely used models for the analysis of spatial point patterns. Although Bayesian methods and software for fitting LGCPs are now well established, practical tools for model criticism, predictive assessment, and model comparison remain comparatively underdeveloped. This paper...
We extend the discrete complex complement quotient (DCCQ) framework from binary Bernoulli counts to multinomial count compositions. For m+1 categories, m is the number of independent probability degrees of freedom. Integer count vectors modulo common scaling determine rational points of the m-dimensional probability simplex. Building...
Dynamic networks describe evolving relational systems in which abrupt structural changes may signal anomalous events or important transitions. Detecting such changes requires distinguishing genuine structural signals from fluctuations in network observations and learned representations. We propose a DeepWalk-based framework for...
Let the exact homogeneous hard-margin support vector machine be trained on \(m\) independent observations from a Borel probability law on a real Hilbert space. We prove that, with score zero counted as an error, there is a universal numerical constant \(C\) such that \[ \Pp\left( γ_m>0,\quad \Risk(u_m)> \frac{C}{m} \left( ...