arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 20, 2026 — 08:46:06 EST
We propose a novel finite-sample procedure for testing composite null hypotheses. Traditional likelihood ratio tests based on asymptotic $χ^2$ approximations often exhibit substantial bias in small samples. Our procedure rejects the composite null hypothesis $H_0: θ\in Θ_0$ if the simple null hypothesis $H_0: θ= θ_t$ is rejected for...
Precision oncology aims to prescribe the optimal cancer treatment to the right patients, maximizing therapeutic benefits. However, identifying patient subgroups that may benefit more from experimental cancer treatments based on randomized clinical trials presents a significant analytical challenge. To address this, we introduce a...
We consider statistical inference for errors-in-variables regression models with dependent observations under the high dimensionality of the error covariance matrix. It is tempting to prewhiten the model and data that had led to efficient weighted least squares estimation in the presence of the measurement errors, as being practised...
Route alignment design in surveying and transportation engineering frequently involves fixed waypoint constraints, where a path must precisely traverse specific coordinates. While existing literature primarily relies on geometric optimization or control-theoretic spline frameworks, there is a lack of systematic statistical modeling...
Multivariate network time series are ubiquitous in modern systems, yet existing network autoregressive models typically treat nodes as scalar processes, ignoring cross-variable spillovers. To capture these complex interactions without the curse of dimensionality, we propose the Reduced-Rank Network Autoregressive (RRNAR) model. Our...
Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic...
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs samplers can be used to estimate the model, yet suffering from various problems including...
Recent advances in large-scale models, including deep neural networks and large language models, have substantially improved performance across a wide range of learning tasks. The widespread availability of such pre-trained models creates new opportunities for data-efficient statistical learning, provided they can be effectively...
Sampling-based inference has seen a surge of interest in recent years. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful algorithm that leverages concepts from Hamiltonian dynamics to efficiently explore complex target distributions. Variants of HMC are available in popular software packages, enabling off-the-shelf...
We study variance reduction for score estimation and diffusion-based sampling in settings where the clean (target) score is available or can be approximated. Starting from the Target Score Identity (TSI), which expresses the noisy marginal score as a conditional expectation of the target score under the forward diffusion, we develop:...
In this study, a family of distributions called cubic lower record-based transmuted is provided. A special case of this family is proposed as an alternative exponential distribution. Several statistical properties are explored. We utilize nine different methods to estimate the parameters of the suggested distribution. In order to...
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable choice because it can account for different levels of variability in the data, a feature known as...
We revisit Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (Deep LDA) from a likelihood-based perspective. While classical LDA is a simple Gaussian model with linear decision boundaries, attaching an LDA head to a neural encoder raises the question of how to train the resulting deep classifier by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We first show...
Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive model checking and comparison often fail to adequately address these features. This paper bridges...
Standard rare-event simulation techniques require exact distributional specifications, which limits their effectiveness in the presence of distributional uncertainty. To address this, we develop a novel framework for estimating rare-event probabilities subject to such distributional model risk. Specifically, we focus on computing...
We show that for unconstrained Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers, maximum-likelihood training admits pathological solutions in which class means drift together, covariances collapse, and the learned representation becomes almost non-discriminative. Conversely, cross-entropy training yields excellent accuracy but...
This paper introduces grangersearch, an R package for performing exhaustive Granger causality searches on multiple time series. The package provides: (1) exhaustive pairwise search across multiple variables, (2) automatic lag order optimization with visualization, (3) tidyverse-compatible syntax with pipe operators and non-standard...
This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to...
Understanding how educators interact and form peer networks in online professional development contexts has become increasingly important as MOOCs for educators (MOOC-Eds) proliferate. This study examines peer discussion network formation and evolution in 'The Digital Learning Transition in K-12 Schools', a MOOC-Ed offered to U.S. and...
The increasing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical settings challenges foundational assumptions underlying traditional frameworks of medical evidence. Classical statistical approaches, centered on randomized controlled trials, frequentist hypothesis testing, and static confidence intervals, were designed for fixed...
Recent works have demonstrated promising performances of neural networks on hyperbolic spaces and symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifolds. These spaces belong to a family of Riemannian manifolds referred to as symmetric spaces of noncompact type. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for developing neural networks on such...
This paper develops the algorithmic and dynamical foundations of recursive ensemble learning driven by Fibonacci-type update flows. In contrast with classical boosting Freund and Schapire (1997); Friedman (2001), where the ensemble evolves through first-order additive updates, we study second-order recursive architectures in which...
The growing frequency and intensity of wildfires pose serious threats to communities in wildland-urban interface regions. Understanding evacuation behavior is critical for effective emergency planning. This study analyzes evacuation during the 2025 Palisades and Eaton Fires using high-resolution Facebook data. We propose a...
In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function, thereby refining the classical Bayes Factor by accounting for the curvature of the likelihood...
We propose a new estimation method for the Stable Trait, Auto Regressive Trait, and State (STARTS) model, which is well known for its frequent occurrence of improper solutions. The proposed approach is implemented through a two-stage estimation procedure that combines matrix decomposition factor analysis (MDFA) based on eigenvalue...