arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 19, 2026 — 07:41:11 EST
We study the problem of forecasting and optimally trading day-ahead versus real-time (DART) price spreads in U.S. wholesale electricity markets. Building on the framework of Galarneau-Vincent et al., we extend spike prediction from a single zone to a multi-zone setting and treat both positive and negative DART spikes within a unified...
We study the optimal liquidation of a large position on Uniswap v2 and Uniswap v3 in discrete time. The instantaneous price impact is derived from the AMM pricing rule. Transient impact is modeled to capture either exponential or approximately power-law decay, together with a permanent component. In the Uniswap v2 setting, we obtain...
This paper introduces an algorithmic framework for conducting systematic literature reviews (SLRs), designed to improve efficiency, reproducibility, and selection quality assessment in the literature review process. The proposed method integrates Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, clustering algorithms, and interpretability...
Topological Data Analysis (TDA), an emerging field in investment sciences, harnesses mathematical methods to extract data features based on shape, offering a promising alternative to classical portfolio selection methodologies. We utilize persistence landscapes, a type of summary statistics for persistent homology, to capture the...
Index tracking, also known as passive investing, has gained significant traction in financial markets due to its cost-effective and efficient approach to replicating the performance of a specific market index. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of the various modeling approaches and strategies developed for index...
Improvements in return forecast accuracy do not always lead to proportional improvements in portfolio decision quality, especially under realistic trading frictions and constraints. This paper adopts the Smart Predict--then--Optimize (SPO) paradigm for portfolio optimization in real markets, which explicitly aligns the learning...
This work introduces an end-to-end framework for multi-asset option pricing that combines market-consistent risk-neutral density recovery with quantum-accelerated numerical integration. We first calibrate arbitrage-free marginal distributions from European option quotes using the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) model, leveraging its...
We study contagion and systemic risk in sparse financial networks with balance-sheet interactions on a directed random graph. Each institution has homogeneous liabilities and equity, and exposures along outgoing edges are split equally across counterparties. A linear fraction of institutions have zero out-degree in sparse digraphs; we...
This paper develops a computational framework for Multi-Period Martingale Optimal Transport (MMOT), addressing convergence rates, algorithmic efficiency, and financial calibration. Our contributions include: (1) Theoretical analysis: We establish discrete convergence rates of $O(\sqrt{Δt} \log(1/Δt))$ via Donsker's principle and...
We document regime-dependent predictive structure between equity factors using 35 years of Fama-French data (1990-2024). We find that Value (HML) Granger-causes Size (SMB) during crisis regimes (p < 1e-4, 9-day lag) but not during normal conditions, validating across 5 of 6 historical stress events (2008, 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020)....
We study continuous-time CRRA portfolio choice in diffusion markets with estimated and hence uncertain coefficients. Nature draws a latent parameter $θ\sim q$ at time $0$ and keeps it fixed; the investor never observes $θ$ and must commit to a single $θ$-blind policy maximizing an ex-ante objective, treating $q$ as a decision-time...
We consider an optimal trading problem under a market impact model with endogenous market resistance generated by a sophisticated trader who (partially) detects metaorders and trades against them to exploit price overreactions induced by the order flow. The model features a concave transient impact driven by a power-law propagator...
We extend the Q-learner in Black-Scholes (QLBS) framework by incorporating risk aversion and trading costs, and propose a novel Replication Learning of Option Pricing (RLOP) approach. Both methods are fully compatible with standard reinforcement learning algorithms and operate under market frictions. Using SPY and XOP option data, we...
This article constructs a forward exponential utility in a market with multiple defaultable risks. Using the Jacod-Pham decomposition for random fields, we first characterize forward performance processes in a defaultable market under the default-free filtration. We then construct a forward utility via a system of recursively defined,...
Random walk models with log-normal outcomes fit local market observations remarkably well. Yet interconnected or recursive structures - layered derivatives, leveraged positions, iterative funding rounds - periodically produce power-law distributed events. We show that the transition from log-normal to power-law dynamics requires only...
We study non-linear Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) driven by a Brownian motion and p default martingales. The driver of the BSDE with multiple default jumps can take a generalized form involving an optional finite variation process. We first show existence and uniqueness. We then establish comparison and strict...
Capital allocation is a procedure used to assess the risk contributions of individual risk components to the total risk of a portfolio. While the conditional tail expectation (CTE)-based capital allocation is arguably the most popular capital allocation method, its inability to reflect important tail behaviour of losses necessitates a...
Machine learning is central to empirical asset pricing, but portfolio construction still relies on point predictions and largely ignores asset-specific estimation uncertainty. We propose a simple change: sort assets using uncertainty-adjusted prediction bounds instead of point predictions alone. Across a broad set of ML models and a...
This paper examines the impact of reducing Ethereum slot time on decentralized exchange activity, with a focus on CEX-DEX arbitrage behavior. We develop a trading model where the agent's DEX transaction is not guaranteed to land, and the agent explicitly accounts for this execution risk when deciding whether to pursue arbitrage...
Stablecoins have emerged as a rapidly growing digital payment instrument, raising the question of whether blockchain-based settlement can function as a substitute for incumbent card networks in retail payments. This Systematization of Knowledge (SoK) provides a systematic comparison between stablecoin payment arrangements and card...
Based on the analog between the stochastic dynamics and quantum harmonic oscillator, we propose a market force driving model to generalize the Black-Scholes model in finance market. We give new schemes of option pricing, in which we can take various unexpected market behaviors into account to modify the option pricing. As examples, we...
The deviation of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the practical economic system allows us gain the arbitrary or risk premium in finance markets. We propose the triplet $(R,H,σ)$ theory to give the local and global optimal portfolio, which eneralize from the $(R,σ)$ model. We present the formulation of the triplet $(R,H,σ)$...
This study investigates how financial market structure reorganizes during the COVID-19 crash using a conditional p-threshold mutual information (MI) based Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) framework. We analyze nonlinear dependencies among the largest stocks from four diverse QUAD countries: the US, Japan, Australia, and India. Crashes are...
Kladia Liquidity Deflator (KLD) is an XRPL-based, debt-indexed token whose supply dynamics respond directly to a debt index derived from macroeconomic data sources. The model links indebtedness to deterministic adjustments in issuance, burns, and escrow release caps, creating a rule-based deflationary mechanism that strengthens as...
Credit risk assessment increasingly relies on diverse sources of information beyond traditional structured financial data, particularly for micro and small enterprises (mSEs) with limited financial histories. This study proposes a multimodal framework that integrates structured credit variables, climate panel data, and unstructured...