arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 20, 2026 — 19:23:32 EST
Forecasting accuracy is routinely optimised in financial prediction tasks even though investment and risk-management decisions are executed under transaction costs, market impact, capacity limits, and binding risk constraints. This paper treats forecasting as an econometric input to a constrained decision problem. A predictive...
This paper examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and conflict in the ten largest aid-receiving African countries between 2009 and 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Principal Component Analysis, and Ridge (L2) regression, the study assesses whether conflict, proxied by political stability, governance...
Interference or spillover effects arise when an individual's outcome (e.g., health) is influenced not only by their own treatment (e.g., vaccination) but also by the treatment of others, creating challenges for evaluating treatment effects. Exposure mappings provide a framework to study such interference by explicitly modeling how the...
High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals are released. We propose a mixed-frequency state-space (MF--SS) extension of the Lee--Carter...
A sender first publicly commits to an experiment and then can privately run additional experiments and selectively disclose their outcomes to a receiver. The sender has private information about the maximal number of additional experiments they can perform (i.e., their type). We show that the sender cannot attain their commitment...
This paper presents a modeling framework for simulating the decision-making processes of artificial farms populating an agent-based model for the Italian wheat production system. The decision process is based on a mathematical programming model with which farms (i.e., agents) decide the target yield (production per hectare) and the...
We study the typical structure of games in terms of their connectivity properties. A game is `connected' if it has a pure Nash equilibrium and there is a best-response path from every action profile which is not a pure Nash equilibrium to every pure Nash equilibrium; a game is generic if it has no indifferences. In previous work we...
We propose a method for estimating long-term treatment effects with many short-term proxy outcomes: a central challenge when experimenting on digital platforms. We formalize this challenge as a latent variable problem where observed proxies are noisy measures of a low-dimensional set of unobserved surrogates that mediate treatment...
A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a competitive economy with constant returns to scale, we prove that the wage-maximizing labor...
Given the recent targeting of Chinese scientists by the Department of Justice and sizable contributions of Chinese scientists to American science, it is urgent to investigate the presence and the particulars of anti-Chinese discrimination in the American academy. Across a sample of all faculty in the top 100 departments of sociology,...
Clinical trials shape medical evidence and determine who gains access to experimental therapies. Whether participation in these trials reflects the global burden of disease remains unclear. Here we analyze participation inequality across more than 62,000 randomized controlled trials spanning 16 major disease categories from 2000 to...
Many workers value purpose and meaning in their jobs alongside income, and firms need to align these preferences with profit goals. This paper develops a dynamic model in which firms invest in purpose to enhance job meaning and motivate effort. Workers, who differ in productivity, choose both productive and socialization effort,...
Does more information benefit consumers when a monopolist can adjust its price? Although information helps consumers evaluate a product, Schlee (1996) showed that public disclosure can reduce consumer surplus. We characterize exactly when the opposite occurs. More informative disclosure increases consumer surplus if and only if a...
Miscalibrated beliefs are widely viewed as compromising the quality of employees' decisions. Why, then, might an organization prefer to hire an individual known to be overconfident? This paper develops a theory of organizational demand for employees' levels of confidence when private information interacts with conflicts of interest. I...
Empirical models of multi-product demand rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns, increasingly using proxies built from unstructured data. When proxies are imperfect, standard workflows yield biased counterfactuals and invalid inference. We develop a practical toolkit to address these issues....
Empirical measures of financial connectedness based on Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) often yield dense network structures that obscure true transmission channels and complicate the identification of systemic risk. This paper proposes a novel information-criterion-based approach to uncover sparse, economically...
We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm trained via contrastive learning and LLM-driven data augmentation, we map vacancy requirements to...
The rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into China's economy presents a classic governance challenge: how to harness its growth potential while managing its disruptive effects on traditional capital and labor markets. This study addresses this policy dilemma by modeling the dynamic interactions between AI capital,...
This paper derives limit properties of nonparametric kernel regression estimators without requiring existence of density for regressors in $\mathbb{R}^{q}.$ In functional regression limit properties are established for multivariate functional regression. The rate and asymptotic normality for the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator is...
Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is diffusing rapidly, yet its adoption is strikingly unequal. Using nationally representative UK survey data from 2023 to 2024, we show that women adopt GenAI substantially less often than men because they perceive its societal risks differently. We construct a composite index capturing...
This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio...
Portfolio diversification is a cornerstone of modern finance, while risk aversion is central to decision theory; both concepts are long-standing and foundational. We investigate their connections by studying how different forms of diversification correspond to notions of risk aversion. We focus on the classical distinctions between...
We study the adjudication of water rights in international rivers. We characterize allocation rules that formalize focal principles to deal with water disputes in a basic model. Central to our analysis is a family of geometric rules that implement concatenated transfers downstream. They can be seen as formalizing Limited Territorial...
We study a ridge estimator for the high-dimensional two-way fixed effect regression model with a sparse bipartite network. We develop concentration inequalities showing that when the ridge parameters increase as the log of the network size, the bias, and the variance-covariance matrix of the vector of estimated fixed effects converge...
Factor extraction from systems of variables with a large cross-sectional dimension, $N$, is often based on either Principal Components (PC)-based procedures, or Kalman filter (KF)-based procedures. Measuring the uncertainty of the extracted factors is important when, for example, they have a direct interpretation and/or they are used...