arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 19, 2026 — 19:22:00 EST
We study a fractional assignment setting where $n$ objects are to be assigned to $n$ agents with unit capacity, and each agent specifies an ideal distribution over the objects. Unlike in classic random assignment, these ideal distributions are not necessarily degenerate, as agents may prefer a mixture of objects rather than any single...
Applied instrumental variables (IV) practice reports a first-stage F, now often the conditional F of Sanderson and Windmeijer (2016), and reads a large value as license to interpret the second stage. We show that no first-stage diagnostic can provide it. With a scalar instrument, a scalar treatment, and covariates entered linearly,...
Qualcomm's No License, No Chips policy let it levy a royalty surcharge on every handset, whether or not it used a Qualcomm modem chip. In FTC v. Qualcomm, the Ninth Circuit reversed the district court after accepting Qualcomm's argument that, because the surcharge did not vary with the chip, it was "chip neutral" and left handset...
Modern economic and financial data are increasingly organized as multiway arrays, with observations indexed simultaneously by geographic regions, industrial sectors, asset categories, and other economic characteristics. Representing such data as tensor-valued time series preserves their intrinsic multiway structure. Although...
Instrumental variable analyses often rely on the assumption that instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressor. In many applications, researchers can defend only a plausible range for direct effects of instruments, while conventional sensitivity analyses may be unreliable when instruments are weak. This paper...
Moving from geographically fragmented to pooled waiting lists in deceased-donor organ transplantation can improve efficiency, but it raises concerns about regional fairness and participation incentives. This paper studies Pareto gains from such transitions in a multi-class queueing model with impatient agents, perishable items, and a...
Large language models (LLMs) now serve as conversational shopping assistants on platforms that also sell advertising. These AI agents face a conflict of duty. They advise consumers who rely on their judgment, yet are deployed by platforms that benefit when sponsored listings are chosen. Sponsorship disclosures, designed to allow...
We study anonymous binary social choice functions on the universal weak-preference domain when the society of voters is countably infinite. Voters may strictly support one of the two alternatives or be indifferent, and non-manipulability is required in the form of coalitional strategy-proofness. Full anonymity reduces the relevant...
This paper introduces segregation monotonicity as a criterion for evaluating measures of inequality in social networks. A network inequality measure satisfies segregation monotonicity if, holding the distribution of income fixed, it weakly increases as the network becomes more segregated according to a specified transformation of...
Early-career work both signals a worker's ability and builds long-run skills. We introduce an AI industry into a career signaling model. The industry sells tokens, which workers convert into output indistinguishable from their own. We compare three regimes: no token trade, purchases only, and open trade with side sales. With no token...
Telework has expanded rapidly, and understanding the behaviors employees enact under it has become correspondingly important. This study develops an integrative conceptual framework specifying the multidimensional nature of telework behavior. A systematic literature review following PRISMA identified 114 review articles, which were...
I study dynamic treatment effects in panel data under staggered adoption when treatment timing depends jointly on unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and time-varying pretreatment covariates, including lagged outcomes. Untreated potential outcomes follow a nonparametric dynamic panel model that allows flexible interactions between...
We investigate Empirical Bayes (EB) methods in the context of compound adaptive experiments, where the arm distribution in each experiment follows a normal distribution with an unknown mean that we seek to estimate. There are two main EB strategies: $g$-modeling, which estimates the prior by maximizing the marginal likelihood, and...
This paper develops Wald inference for least-squares estimation of linear regression models on dyadic data, accommodating configurations where multiple observations share the same pair of units (e.g., directed flows, multilayer networks, and dyadic panels). We establish that the dyadic-robust Wald statistic is asymptotically $χ^2_q$...
Consider a situation wherein a decision maker sequentially searches for the best alternative among heterogeneous options with an arbitrary search order. The agent partially learns the value of an option when inspecting it. The information structure jointly determines the ex-ante and ex-post value of investigating each option, thereby...
Numbers this large invite a defensive reflex: reach for the reassuring figure and move on. By the most widely cited measure, the World Bank's extreme-poverty line of \$3.00 per day (2021 PPP), approximately 847 million people, or 10.4% of the world's population, lived in poverty in 2024. That figure is accurate as measured. It is...
The Money Pump Index (MPI) of Echenique et al. (2011) measures the severity of consumer irrationality, but computing the exact mean and median MPI over all revealed preference cycles is NP-hard (Smeulders et al., 2013). Existing solutions rely on heuristic proxies, such as evaluating only shorter cycles or bounding the MPI. By framing...
We model the economics of recursive self-improvement (RSI) and assess its plausibility and impacts. First, we build a sequence of increasingly rich models of AI progress to highlight the feedback loops behind RSI. We represent our models as directed graphs and show that net acceleration in AI capabilities depends on the product of...
We provide an introduction to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and develop two economic models connecting this emerging market to classical financial theory. In search for a theory of RWA tokenization, we classify RWA tokenization according to the role of the underlying asset, distinguishing standard RWA tokenization, stablecoins,...
The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the...
We study revenue-maximizing attention allocation on an ad-funded social media platform governed by recommendation algorithms. Attention is costly and can be monetized through advertising or allocated to increase creators' exposure, creating a trade-off between monetization and production incentives. In a two-sided model with...
Understanding how supply chains endogenously transform requires a parametric model of processing networks with non-neutral substitution elasticities. While the Cascaded CES (CCES) production function provides a rigorous framework for these multi-layered linkages, dynamically calibrating its structural parameters from time-series data...
Predict-then-optimize methods such as Smart "Predict, then Optimize" (SPO+) of Elmachtoub and Grigas (2022) learn a mapping from contextual features to unknown edge costs and then solve the induced combinatorial problem on the predicted costs. This approach is powerful but relies on the predictive model being well specified: when the...
A principal faces a decision problem under uncertainty and can contract with a researcher to provide relevant information. The cost of acquiring information is only known to the researcher, and, moreover, by privately making an investment the researcher can reduce their expected cost. We show that this contracting problem can be...
After the arrival of transformative artificial intelligence (TAI), broad-based automation is expected to decrease the labor share and increase income and wealth inequality. Although economic growth is likely to accelerate, most of its gains may accrue to a narrow group of individuals and firms. Hence, if unmitigated by redistributive...