arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 22, 2026 — 04:32:32 EST
Forecasting time series accurately is critical for applications with complex data ranging from energy systems to healthcare and finance. Among current state of the art models, generative latent variable models are increasingly implemented; yet principled generalisation guarantees for modern latent variable models remain limited. In...
Dynamical symbolic regression methods identify governing differential equations from noisy data, balancing interpretability and predictive accuracy. However, standard methods often produce expressions that violate known physical laws. To address this, we propose FluxDisco, a physics-informed framework tailored for flux-based,...
We develop a finite-horizon calibration method for raw-score martingale posteriors, with von Mises--Fisher models as the main worked example. Starting from the maximum likelihood estimator, predictive paths are generated by simulating future observations from the current fitted model and updating the natural parameter by...
We present an approach for determining sample sizes required to detect underestimations of the expected shortfall with a prescribed power when applying the recently proposed e-backtesting procedure. We consider scenarios in which the value-at-risk at level $p$ is always estimated correctly, while the difference between the true...
We study regression under bounded responses in terms of excess mean squared error. When the comparator class is finite, this setting is known as model selection aggregation, and achieving minimax excess risk requires improper learning algorithms. Contrary to this, in the universal learning framework no improperness is needed, as...
We consider density estimation under the relaxed local differential privacy condition that the privatized distributions are $α$-close in total variation distance. We show that adding independent noise with a convenient symmetrized Gamma distribution to each sensitive observation attains the $α$-TV-LDP. We prove that the deconvolution...
Self-supervised learning relies on so-called data augmentations $φ(x)$ of unlabeled datapoints $x$ --- for example, masking random pixels in an image $x$ --- that should leave the label of $x$ invariant and are often used to learn a lower-complexity invariant subspace $\cal V$ for downstream tasks. In practice, such augmentations $\{...
Bridging the gap between animal and human experiments remains a major challenge in translational medicine, particularly in early drug development. Progress is constrained by financial cost, the difficulty of integrating heterogeneous in vitro and in vivo data, and the desire to reduce the use of animal testing balanced against...
Problem definition: Fixed parameters and inputs in a stochastic simulator induce a distribution over complete trajectories, not one trajectory. Calibration must assess this distribution, including variability and temporal dependence, against observations. Yet stochastic car-following models are commonly calibrated with...
Multivariate correlated outcomes occur across disciplines, including ecology, social sciences, and psychometrics. This paper focuses on clustering these outcomes across observational units, specifically, finding groups of units with the same ``outcome profile". Our motivation comes from bioregionalization in ecology, which aims to...
Longitudinal clinical data are increasingly available, offering opportunities to study treatment effects over time but also raising challenges related to time-varying confounding and evolving treatment decisions. We investigate how longitudinal treatment dynamics affect causal effect estimation when baseline and longitudinal methods...
The statistical analysis of heavy-tailed data has received considerable attention because extreme observations frequently arise in many practical applications. The Pareto type-I distribution is a fundamental heavy-tailed model used in economics, finance, actuarial science, insurance, reliability, and extreme value analysis. In this...
We propose a Bayesian model-based approach for clustering functional data with an unknown number of clusters and temporally correlated observations. Cluster-specific mean functions are represented using B-spline basis expansions, while within-curve dependence is modeled through an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck covariance structure. A truncated...
While diffusion-based methods have recently emerged as effective tools for probing the intrinsic geometry of high-dimensional data, their statistical difficulty remains largely unexplored. We study estimation of the finite-scale population functional underlying FLIPD (Kamkari et al., 2024; arXiv:2406.03537), a diffusion-based local...
This study proposes two novel bivariate distributions for jointly modeling temperature and rainfall by integrating Kumaraswamy-Teissier marginals with Clayton and Gumbel copula structures. To capture a wide range of dependence patterns, including both positive and negative associations, rotated copula variants (90°, 180°, and 270°)...
This paper introduces a quantile-based Kumaraswamy-Teissier autoregressive moving average (KTARMA) model for positive-valued time series. Leveraging the flexibility of the extended Kumaraswamy-Teissier distribution within an observation-driven framework, the random component of the distribution is conditioned on the historical process...
We show that susceptibilities, an interpretability technique developed for neural networks, can identify the presence of algorithmic structure in Turing machines by probing the local loss landscape of a learning problem for noisy Turing machines introduced by Murfet and Troiani (arXiv:2504.08075). We prove that symmetries and path...
In medical research, it is often of interest to evaluate the predictive performance of a biomarker. Statistical approaches based on the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and its summary measures, such as the area under the curve (AUC) and the Youden index, are widely used to evaluate the prognostic performance of these...
Modern ride-share platforms must commit to a price before a trip is taken, yet the realized fare depends on travel time that is uncertain at the moment of sale, which can occur days in advance. The upfront price thus decomposes into the expected fare and the premium on an insurance claim whose payoff is the shortfall between the...
In this paper we introduce the R package mccca, which implements multiple-class cluster correspondence analysis (MCCCA) proposed in M.Takagishi et al., (2022). MCCCA is a statistical method that identifies and visualizes heterogeneous tendencies specific to ``classes'' (e.g., gender and nationality) in a low dimensional space. In...
Measles, a highly contagious, deadly virus, is at risk of losing its eradication status in the Unites States. Understanding the pattern, including seasonality, of measles could provide great benefit for forecasting, prevention, and public health preparedness as the virus re-emerges. The novel Variable Band-pass Periodic Block...
The computational revolution is advancing at an unprecedented pace. The combination of proof-assistant technologies and generative AI tools has recently enabled the solution of complex problems in pure mathematics at a scale that seemed unattainable only a few years ago. However, these technologies have not yet become standard tools...
Safe robot navigation in dense crowds requires reasoning about pedestrian motion and how it may change in response to a robot. However, many learning-based approaches generate pedestrian motion independently of the robot or assume uniform reciprocity, omitting an important source of interaction uncertainty. This paper presents a...
Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) systems rely on past experience for learning coordinated behaviour, but this experience may become unreliable if the environment or task objective changes during training. In such cases, agents first need a way to recognize that the situation has changed before deciding how to...
Does a simplified legal clause still say what the original said? The checks in current use cannot establish that it does: requiring an identical pair to score highest and an unrelated pair lowest moves lexical overlap and legal force together, so any monotone function of token overlap satisfies both. Our remedy is a dissociation, an...