arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 21, 2026 — 23:09:33 EST
Prediction markets are attracting growing attention as trading volumes rise and their practical relevance increases. To ensure efficient price discovery, liquidity provision becomes ever more important. Due to the binary settlement structure in prediction markets, optimal market making leads to an optimization problem that is...
We study equilibrium price formation in an incomplete financial market with a large population of agents, where stock prices are subject to a single-default event. Agents are assumed to be heterogeneous in their risk aversion and terminal liabilities, and maximize exponential utility of terminal net wealth. We first characterize each...
Automated market makers (AMMs) for prediction markets descend from market scoring rules, where a mechanism operator subsidizes a market to aggregate beliefs about uncertain events. The existing literature has focused on bounding the total worst-case loss to the subsidizer, but has not addressed how that loss is distributed across...
Abliteration - deleting a model's refusal direction from its weights - is the standard recipe behind popular "uncensored" open-weight models. We show the surgery is not clean. As a disposition probe we use 21,600 decisions under uncertainty - weekly up/down calls on 60 Warsaw Stock Exchange equities over 18 weeks, replayed through a...
We develop a continuous-time structural dynamic model to determine the exact insolvency regions of banks arising from the non-linear interaction between liquidity and credit risk. While existing literature predominantly treats these risks in isolation or via reduced-form specifications, we explicitly model the feedback loop where...
In this paper, we study a general continuous-time Principal-Agent (PA) problem, where the agent privately makes effort and consumption decisions over time under a contract with payment schemes both in continuous time and in lump sums. In particular, we allow the continuous payment process to be a controlled diffusion, which is...
This paper develops a theory of monetary risk measures on metric state spaces. We propose the space of Lipschitz functions vanishing at a reference state as a natural domain for financial positions. The associated Lipschitz-free space provides its canonical predual, linking anchored Lipschitz payoffs to transport-based dual variables...
An order-book market whose liquidity provision is anchored to a fundamental value carries a restoring force: the price mean-reverts to value and the book refills after a shock. We show this restoring force is a robust intrinsic stabiliser and identify it causally-dialling the anchor down removes the mean-reversion, and a...
We consider a novel robust utility maximisation problem under bounded cumulative transition rate uncertainty within the class of non-Markovian marked point processes on a finite state-space. Utility is maximised over the class of admissible controls, while Nature chooses a worst-case biometric scenario from the class of admissible,...
Simulating dependent Bernoulli outcomes with prescribed means and pairwise Pearson correlations is a common task in risk modeling. A familiar approach is the Gaussian-threshold workflow for binary outcomes, often viewed as a Bernoulli analogue of the Gaussian copula construction. We show that setting latent Gaussian correlations equal...
In this paper, we develop an open-economy macroeconomic model of a Proof-of-Stake network to analyze nominal token-price dynamics and the systemic effects of speculative capital. We first consider a network populated solely by active utility users, who finance network activity through a steady exogenous inflow of fiat currency. We...
This paper investigates second-order asymptotic expansions for the conditional higher moment (CoHM) coherent risk measure under a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) dependence structure, capturing a weak contagion between a primary loss risk and a reference risk. Assuming that the primary risk belongs to the Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel...
Taiwan's central role in global semiconductor manufacturing exposes Taiwan-related ETFs to technology concentration, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply-chain disruptions, resulting in return distributions characterized by heavy tails, volatility clustering, and asymmetric responses to negative shocks. This paper analyzes thirty...
This paper investigates a multi-layer reinsurance chain within a stochastic differential game framework involving m competing insurers and n reinsurers. Specifically, Stackelberg differential games are employed to characterize the strategic interactions between reinsurance buyers and sellers at each layer of the chain. In addition, a...
Let $V$ be an $n$-dimensional Euclidean vector space, ,where $n\ge 4$, and $\ell = \lfloor\frac{n}{2}\rfloor$. We prove the sharp pointwise estimate \[ q_2(E) \ge -\frac{2(\ell -1)}{3\ell} \mathrm{Scal}(E) \mathrm{Id}_{Λ^2V^*} \] for every algebraic curvature tensor $E$ on $V$ with nonnegative sectional curvature. Applying...
We develop a unified framework for metallic and superconducting phases obtained by doping a fractional Chern insulator (FCI) with $C=1/3$. Starting from the parton construction $c(\mathbf r)=f_1(\mathbf r)f_2(\mathbf r)f_3(\mathbf r)$, the low-energy theory has $SU(3)_{\mathrm{gauge}}\times SU(3)_{\mathrm{valley}}$ symmetry and nine...
Recent DESI results exhibit preference for a Null Energy Condition violating dynamical dark energy, with early phantom behaviour. We explore an alternative interpretation in which this preference arises from unconventional dark matter dynamics rather than from dynamical dark energy. We propose a dynamical dark matter (DDM) model, with...
Future interferometers may detect a gravitational-wave (GW) signal from a cosmological first-order phase transition. Reconstructing the underlying particle-physics model from such a signal requires theoretical control over the map from microphysics to the spectrum. For classically scale-invariant extensions of the Standard Model,...
Constraining local primordial non-Gaussianity through scale-dependent bias requires an accurate determination of the PNG bias parameter $b_φ$, which is completely degenerate with $f_\mathrm{NL}$ in the galaxy power spectrum. The standard universality relation predicts $b_φ$ from the linear bias, but breaks down for realistic galaxy...
We re-investigate the open cluster UBC 63 using the Gaia DR3 data and show that, rather than being a single cluster as previously classified, it is a compelling candidate for a double cluster undergoing an unbound flyby interaction. A GMM decomposition performed in the 5D astrometric space reveals the two statistically distinct...
Massive cosmological correlators exhibit a rich hypergeometric structure already at tree level, reflecting the distorted propagation of particles in de Sitter spacetime. In this paper, we reveal that this apparent complexity conceals a remarkably simple underlying mathematical structure. Using the spectral representation, we compute...
We present HyperIso, a new standalone program for the evaluation of flavour physics observables across a wide variety of Standard Model (SM) and Beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) scenarios. The code builds on the physics heritage of SuperIso, but is implemented as a new modular software package with a modern C++ core and multiple user...
Magnetometers are among the most widely used probes in science and technology. Comagnetometers increase sensitivity by self-cancellation of magnetic noise, but only at low frequencies. We suggest a correlated measurement of two alkali species in one cell to cancel the magnetic background also at high frequencies. The inter-species...
We perform a search for continuous gravitational waves from J0435+3233 using LIGO O4a public data. J0435+3233 is unique among millisecond pulsars as it exhibits an exceptionally large spin-down and marks the first pulsar observed to date with a spin-down larger than $10^{-12}$ Hz/s in the sub $10$ ms spin period range, making it a...
Non-Abelian gauge fields play a key role in describing the behavior of particles whose motion is coupled to internal degrees of freedom, such as their spin. Here, we experimentally realize a tuneable non-Abelian gauge field in an active mechanical lattice by using pairs of oscillators to encode a local pseudo-spin for each site, with...