arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 22, 2026 — 22:40:24 EST
High-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) carries substantial risks of recurrence and progression, while current clinical risk stratification remains limited. CHIMERA was established as a multimodal AI challenge to benchmark prediction in HR-NMIBC under standardized evaluation. Task BRS predicts RNA-seq-defined BCG...
How cultural repertoires maintain diversity under selection is a fundamental question in cultural evolution. We address this using thirteen years of weekly popularity data for approximately 20,000 Irish traditional tunes, fitting ecological birth-process models under neutral, frequency-dependent, and per-tune selection hypotheses. We...
Critical systems sit near boundaries between qualitatively distinct behaviors. When inferring models of neural activity, this proximity to criticality is thought to require the precise tuning of parameters. Here, we show that as the number of neurons increases, criticality can emerge naturally without fine-tuning. When computing...
Brain-age prediction models are commonly evaluated by predictive accuracy, yet accurate predictions alone do not establish that a model relies on reproducible or neurobiologically supported mechanisms. Post-hoc explanation methods can expose these mechanisms, but existing workflows typically stop at diagnosis or require correction...
Periodic impulsive interventions arise naturally in the management of biological populations, including chemotherapy, pesticide application, and infectious-disease treatment. We develop general conditions for permanence in n-species population models subject to periodic multiplicative pulse disturbances. Our main result provides a...
Biological tissues grow by continuously producing, transporting, and reorganizing multiple interacting constituents. These processes are intrinsically coupled to finite deformation and residual stress. Existing models typically capture either finite growth kinematics or multi-constituent transport, but rarely both within a...
We study feasible stable equilibria of Lotka-Volterra systems and their higher-order extensions. We complete the classification of impossible ecological interaction networks with at most four species and extend several of these impossibility results to families with arbitrarily many species. We then show that these sign-pattern...
Signal correlation and PnL correlation are correlations over different index sets - across assets at each date versus across dates for scalar payoffs - and practitioners often treat the first as a proxy for the second. We give an exact decomposition that shows what that proxy sees and what it discards. We recall that at each date a...
We study how to combine diffusion models that disagree about drift and covariance. Candidate-first relative-entropy minimization gives geometric pooling, whereas expert-first minimization gives the arithmetic mixture associated with weighted logarithmic wealth. Different quadratic variations can make path-space entropy infinite, and...
The Log S-fBM model, introduced by Wu et al., is a stochastic volatility model whose log volatility is a stationary fractional Brownian motion (S-fBM): a stationary Gaussian process with power-decaying autocovariance driven by the Hurst exponent $H$, and variance scaled by an intermittency coefficient. A key property is that it...
We introduce a probability-wave framework for modeling the collective behavior of interacting adaptive agents, deriving testable eigenmodes through a generalized behavioral intelligence (GBI) nonlocal probability-wave equation. This framework captures a broad range of human intelligence behaviors with analytical mechanisms and offers...
We present a comprehensive description of the network of Italian Business-to-Business commercial relationships, based on the universe of electronic invoices collected by the Italian Tax Office. The firm-to-firm detail of the data is exploited to describe the distribution of the numbers of buyers (customers) and sellers (suppliers) per...
We investigate the strategic communication of narratives under model uncertainty. The sender has private information about the true data-generating process of publicly observable data. The receiver is uncertain about how to interpret the data, but aware of the sender's incentives to strategically provide interpretations...
In many power systems, wind and solar generation increasingly often exceeds electricity demand. Curtailing renewable generation in those hours matters both for prices and for the physical stability of the grid. Turning off wind turbines and solar panels is technically easier than ramping down a large power station, yet support schemes...
In this paper we consider situations of (multidimensional) spatial majority voting. We analyze such situations having an even number (greater than or equal to 4) of voters and assume that each voter's preference over the set of policies is ``Euclidean": i.e., each voter has a most preferred ``ideal" policy and the voter's pay-offs...
I derive an explicit mapping from initial assets, income and the real interest rate to consumption for an income fluctuation problem with a borrowing constraint and CARA utility. I show that there exists a threshold of initial wealth over which the partial equilibrium consumption response to a permanent increase in the real interest...
When a country's population declines, the aggregate economy appears to contract on the intensive margin: industrial diversity intact, every industry a little smaller. At the regional level, contraction is uneven and takes the extensive form: entire industries disappear, one after another. The relevant unit is the city: industries are...
In large markets, scarce attention limits partner evaluation and creates allocation loss, which stability magnifies. In an independent random market with average executable degree $d$, unmatched shares fall at rates $e^{-\sqrt d}$ under stability and $e^{-d}$ under maximum matching on the same graph. Changing consideration can make...
Drug-drug interaction (DDI) errors pose serious risks to patient safety. Existing decision-support systems often require physicians to respond to alerts, disrupting workflows and contributing to high override rates. We examine whether a non-mandatory information intervention can reduce DDI errors and foster learning. Using a...
This paper studies difference-in-differences with staggered adoption and a continuous, time-invariant dose. Each cohort-time comparison contains two margins. The level margin is the average treatment effect at realized doses. Under level parallel trends it equals the level contrast between the treated cohort and not-yet-treated...
Whatever the policy question under consideration, reasoned and realistic evaluation requires credible policy analysis under uncertainty. This holds particularly to the study of climate policy in the United States, where science and ideology have become increasingly entangled. Welfare economics provides a transparent formal framework...
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has moved from a novelty product to mainstream consumer finance in the space of a few years. Before 2020, BNPL was a niche offering at the checkouts of online fashion merchants. BNPL then experienced substantial growth (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, 2022; Salem & Udis, 2025), coinciding with increased...
Shapley values are widely used for post-hoc feature attribution, but most estimators return point quantities and do not quantify uncertainty, and popular implementations sample out-of-coalition features from their marginal distribution, which misattributes importance when features are dependent. This paper studies the conditional...
Models for droughts draw on a wide range of meteorological and hydrological inputs. Stakeholders classify droughts according to different purposes and priorities, and accordingly rely on different measures to explain and predict the onset of drought. While many meteorological inputs are available as gridded data products, hydrological...
Attias, Hanneke and Ramaswami (NeurIPS 2025) asked whether randomization provably reduces the oracle calls needed for online learning when the class is accessible only through an oracle. We study the instance they singled out: transductive online learning of thresholds on an unknown total order of T instances, with a consistency-type...