arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 21, 2026 — 08:34:02 EST
Some of the sharpest challenges in sampling from the energy functions of physical systems arise at phase transitions, where the density of states changes abruptly and many sampling algorithms stall. Nested sampling is a particle method that traverses the density of states under a hard energy constraint and is known to be robust to...
A self-supervised encoder is trained once, frozen, and reused through lightweight probes on tasks nobody named at training time; the practitioner's question is when the off-the-shelf features are good enough and when they need fixing. Canonical correlation analysis, HGR maximal correlation, and the population optimum of the spectral...
Statistical precision and scientific relevance operate on different scales. In regular problems, sampling uncertainty contracts at rate $n^{-1/2}$, whereas the magnitude below which an effect is scientifically negligible may be fixed or may vary with information. Let $Δ_n$ denote a relevance threshold and $I_0$ Fisher information in a...
Likelihood-based network models are often fitted under links' independence and low-order constraints, while empirical networks frequently exhibit systematic higher-order structures such as triangles and wedges, characterizing the observed clustering patterns. Real-world core-periphery networks such as the interbank market or the air...
We study density ratio estimation and importance-weighted regression under target shift with continuous outputs. Under target shift, the conditional distribution of the inputs given the outputs remains invariant across the training and test distributions, while the output marginal distribution may change. Although this problem has...
Although sequential decision-making is ubiquitous across domains, policy evaluation and learning with spatio-temporal data remain challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods for evaluating and learning individualized dynamic policies under spatio-temporal interference. Under a semiparametric...
Shared-parameter joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are powerful tools for analyzing repeatedly measured biomarkers, clinical events, and the complex relationships between them. Recent methodological advances have extended the basic framework, which was originally developed for a single event time and a continuous...
Keyed watermark detection tests dependence between observed tokens and pseudorandom variables reconstructed from a secret key. Building on the pivotal framework of Li et al. (2025), we construct predictive likelihood ratios that average over uncertain probability deficits and residual-tail distributions. The aim is robust detection...
The microbiota is increasingly recognized as an active component of host biology, influencing various host phenotypes. Advances in high-throughput sequencing and the emergence of the holobiont perspective have raised expectations regarding hologenomic-informed prediction. Yet, whether and under which conditions integrating microbiota...
This paper studies the detection of multiple simultaneous (systematic) change points for high-dimensional nonstantionary economic and financial time series data. The analytic framework used is based on the standard and adaptive fused group lasso method, where the mixed L_{2,1} penalty is either uniform or re-weighted by data-dependent...
Many applications in public health, environmental science, and economics feature spillovers across connected units, violating the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) underlying classical quantile treatment effect methods. We develop a general framework for defining, estimating, and conducting inference for quantile exposure...
End-to-end Supervised Graph Prediction (SGP) requires a permutation-invariant loss to compare predicted and target graphs with arbitrary node orderings. Such losses typically involve a costly graph-matching problem. We first study three Optimal Transport relaxations of this problem and show, theoretically and empirically, that the...
We study the uniform approximation of smooth scalar-valued functionals on an infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert space by deep ReLU neural networks. Writing the functional input as $X(t)=\sum_{d\geq1}ξ_dν_d(t)$, we quantify the importance of coordinate $d$ through $w_ds_d$, where $s_d$ bounds the magnitude of the corresponding...
Longitudinal microsimulation models to evaluate policies and scenarios for chronic disease risk reduction typically involve simulating multiple risk factors for a synthetic population over time. Various statistical methods have been used to accomplish this, but the principles behind them have never been comprehensively reviewed or...
Facial-expression classifiers convert video into multivariate time series of scores with measurement error from classifiers, videos, and recording conditions. Empirical score series cannot establish whether the score channels reflect a smaller set of latent expressive processes or whether an analysis would recover those processes. We...
Conformal counterfactual prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees for counterfactual outcomes and individual treatment effects under the no-interference assumption. In this work, we relax this assumption by allowing each unit's potential outcomes to depend on other units' treatments and covariates....
A learner probes at most $k$ of $n$ arms each round, receives the maximum of their rewards in $[0,1]$, and competes with the best fixed arm. When does the probing advantage pay for learning? We determine two minimax laws. Under independent stochastic rewards with winner feedback (the maximum and a winning label), or on arbitrary fixed...
While homographies are fundamental to many computer vision tasks, the majority of conventional estimation techniques provide only point estimates without directly quantifying uncertainty introduced by noisy observations. Uncertainty, though, propagates to subsequent processing steps such as camera calibration and 3D reconstruction and...
Generative AI writing assistants and the Large Language Models (LLMs) that power them are increasingly part of how voters gather information before elections. With growing evidence that they influence users' opinions, it is increasingly important to understand the views and positions of these tools. To better understand these views,...
Forecasts made at different levels of aggregation are often required to agree---for example, regional forecasts should sum to the national total. Forecast reconciliation imposes such relationships, but the meaning of agreement depends on whether the constraint is applied to a predictive distribution, a reported summary such as a mean...
Long environmental records increasingly combine observations from successive observing or processing systems. Transitions between these systems create temporal seams that may reflect imperfect harmonization or changes in the observed process. We introduce the Temporal Seam Score (S-score, or S), a signed, robust measure for assessing...
Markov chain Monte Carlo is widely used for model assessment and parameter fitting in astronomy and astrophysics, leading to numerous ready-to-use packages implementing various sampling techniques. For large-scale analyses involving many individual targets, computational efficiency becomes paramount, as it dictates the overall...
Xu, Vardi and Safran (ICML 2026) prove that over-parameterized ridge regression over an unstructured random Gaussian feature map groks, with the delay between memorization and generalization growing as $1/λ$ in the weight decay. We show that on a structured feature map the same delay does not appear. For a band-limited Fourier feature...
We consider a sharp-edge delta wing of small aspect ratio $A>0$, which is an example of a 3D airfoil whose aerodynamic properties cannot be modeled using the potential lift}only. An important role is played by a pair of attached vortices, which generate the vortex lift. We review in detail the leading-edge suction analogy, developed...
We establish the dynamical Mordell--Lang conjecture over the complex numbers for a family of radially ramified polynomial skew products in arbitrary base dimension and fiber rank. We assume that one fixed iterate sends the vertical critical locus into the invariant zero section. Our result covers affine-linear bases and, under a...