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arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 20, 2026 — 07:33:25 EST

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Posted in cs.LG · 2026-07-19 · Mohammed Saeed Al-Huraibi, Ihsan Yozgat, Ahmet Kaplan

A multiverse-consensus pipeline for reproducible feature selection in untargeted LC-MS metabolomics

Background: Untargeted LC-MS metabolomics requires a long chain of preprocessing decisions, each with several equally defensible options. Analysts typically commit to one pipeline and report the resulting feature shortlist. How strongly that shortlist depends on choices that were never varied stays invisible. Results: We adapt...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17345v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.GN · 2026-07-19 · Sally Chen, Roxana Zahedi, Lucy Chhuo, Ricky Nguyen, Marjan BaghGolshani, Amin Beheshti, Mark Grosser, Min Yang, Nona Farbehi, Nigel Lovell, Ahmadreza Argha, Fatemeh Vafaee, Youqiong Ye, Hamid Alinejad-Rokny

Harmonised benchmarking of foundation models for single-cell and spatial transcriptomics reveals context-dependent generalisation

Single-cell and spatial foundation models promise transferable biological representations, yet their generality remains largely untested across modalities, biological domains and analytical tasks. We benchmarked six representative models, Nicheformer, CellPLM, scGPT-spatial, GenePT, scELMo and Novae, using a harmonised framework...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17227v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.BM · 2026-07-19 · Eun Lee, Petter Holme

Network Characteristics of Individual Pigments in Cyanobacterial Photosystem II Core Complexes

Part of the excitation energy transfer (EET) characteristics of the photosystem II (PSII) comes from the interconnection between pigments. To understand the correlation between the EET and the pigments' interaction structure, we construct a network from the EET rates, which are related to both the distance between the pigments...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17096v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.QM · 2026-07-18 · Kenny Wong, Thomas Mourier, Cameron Hopkinson

Post-transcriptional Regulation of Stochastic Gene Expression Conditioned on Large Deviations

Gene expression is a stochastic process that gives rise to large fluctuations in protein levels leading to phenotypic heterogeneity in clonal cell populations; post-transcriptional regulation plays a crucial role in controlling the level of phenotypic variability within a population, which is directly tied to cell-fate decisions. As...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17004v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.QM · 2026-07-18 · Morgan Sanchez, James A. Diao, Jesse Cummings, Maya Makov-Assif, Liat Antwarg Friedman, Seffi Cohen, Aashna P. Shah, Ben Reis, Ran D. Balicer, Noa Dagan, Arjun K. Manrai

Laboratory Trajectories Improve Kidney Failure Risk Estimation

Accurate kidney failure risk assessment is critical to timely intervention in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Existing equations (e.g. Kidney Failure Risk Equation; KFRE) rely on single laboratory measurements to estimate short- and long-term kidney failure risk, leaving longitudinal laboratory patterns unused. Here we introduce Clalit...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17000v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.PE · 2026-07-18 · Qiushuang Wang, Yuyuan Liu, Xiaojie Chen, Attila Szolnoki

Evolutionary dynamics in public goods games with general frequency-dependent returns

The public goods game serves as a significant paradigm for investigating the emergence and maintenance of cooperation in conflicting situations. In the traditional public goods game, the multiplication factor characterizing the synergy effect of common efforts is typically assumed to be constant. In real-world scenarios, however,...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16809v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.NC · 2026-07-18 · Zheng Su, Mingyan Fang

The Positive Experience Principle: Forecasting Conscious Choices with AI Embeddings

A fundamental challenge in the science of consciousness is the lack of a universal, predictive framework for motivated behavior. While existing theories excel at describing specific mechanisms, from neural pathways to computational models, they do not provide a foundational principle that explains the consistent direction of conscious...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16659v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.OT · 2026-07-18 · Shahryar Wasif, Avneek Sandhu, Bin Hu

Orientation Reading by Production Vision-Language Models on Optotype Charts: A Controlled Multi-Model Evaluation Across Reasoning Modes, Prompts, and Access Modalities

OBJECTIVES: Vision-language models are increasingly used to interpret medical and everyday images through consumer chat interfaces, yet their ability to read orientation - the single perceptual operation tested by the tumbling-E acuity optotype - is poorly characterized on the surfaces through which they are actually used. METHODS: We...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16595v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.SC · 2026-07-17 · Kaan Öcal, Augustinas Sukys, Aanjaneya Kumar, James Holehouse

The Origins of Transient Bimodality

Many dynamical systems exhibit diverse modes of behavior. In biology, such modes can represent individual or cell fates. While the emergence of multimodality is commonly studied, transient bimodality is much less well understood. Under transient bimodality, a system moving from a well-defined initial to a final state transiently...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16531v1PDF
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Posted in q-bio.NC · 2026-07-17 · Eve Bodnia, Margaux Basart, Sofie Hai, Lenzie Ford, Nina Miolane, Kenneth S. Kosik, Dirk Bouwmeester, Lincoln D. Carr

Emergent topological structure in spontaneous brain-organoid activity

Neural activity is widely held to organize on low-dimensional structure embedded in a high-dimensional state space. Persistent homology reads such structure directly from the pattern of pairwise correlations, without assuming in advance which variables are relevant. We apply persistent homology to microelectrode-array (MEA) recordings...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16517v1PDF
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Posted in math.PR · 2026-07-17 · Armaan Ahmed, Jasmine Foo, Einar Gunnarsson, Kevin Leder

The Site Frequency Spectrum in an Exponentially-Growing Population with Selection

We consider a supercritical two-type continuous-time linear birth-death process with mutation and selection, in which wild-type individuals give rise to mutant offspring with a larger net growth rate. In this setting, we investigate the ``driver'' site frequency spectrum (SFS), or the random measure that records mutant allelic...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.16479v1PDF
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Posted in physics.soc-ph · 2026-07-17 · Sourav Roy, Md Sayeed Anwar, Timoteo Carletti, Matjaz Perc, Dibakar Ghosh

Diffusion-induced instabilities promote cooperation in eco-evolutionary networks

Understanding how cooperation persists despite the advantage of selfish behavior remains a central challenge in evolutionary dynamics. Classical models of public goods dilemmas predict dominance of defectors, yet natural and social systems often sustain cooperation. We study an eco-evolutionary public goods game on complex networks...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.15989v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ML · 2026-07-20 · Kyungseon Lee, Hankyo Jeong, Kunwoong Kim, Kwanho Lee, Yongdai Kim

COVAriance-Induced Fairness Gap Penalty for Subgroup-Fair Clustering

Fair clustering aims to make cluster assignments independent of sensitive attributes, but this goal becomes challenging when multiple sensitive attributes jointly define many subgroups. In such settings, directly extending existing fair clustering algorithms is computationally expensive or numerically unstable, especially when the...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.18119v1PDF
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Posted in stat.AP · 2026-07-20 · Jürgen Groß

A binomial-like probability distribution with heavy tails

A simple alternative to the binomial distribution that places more probability weight on the tails is considered. Its derivation only requires the weighted arithmetic mean of two discrete probability mass functions, one being the binomial itself and the other being the bi-uniform introduced here. Some properties are derived, and an...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.18083v1PDF
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Posted in stat.AP · 2026-07-20 · Zaïra Méndez-Porcar, Francisco Palmí-Perales, Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Ana de la Torre-García

Predicting subjective rage and facial expressions in human driving: A Bayesian network approach with beta-distributed nodes

A Bayesian network framework is proposed for modelling unit-bounded continuous variables using conditional beta-distributed nodes within a fully Bayesian inference setting. The model captures conditional dependencies and propagates uncertainty through the network, with inference performed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.18030v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ME · 2026-07-20 · Nick Zhang, Riccardo Rastelli, Nial Friel

Bayesian Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model with spike-and slab priors for dispersed count data with application to football scores

Statistical modeling for goals scored in football is typically achieved using the Poisson distribution and its variants. Here we propose a Bayesian framework for modeling under- and over-dispersion in count data by combining the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) likelihood with a spikeand-slab (SAS) prior on unit-specific dispersion...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.18009v1PDF
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Posted in cs.LG · 2026-07-20 · James Hu, Mahdi Ghelichi

Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN

TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17962v1PDF
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Posted in stat.AP · 2026-07-20 · Hyojung Jang, Rotana Radwan, Malcolm Risk, Yao Lee, Jiang Bian, Xu Shi, Serena Guo, Lili Zhao

Privacy-preserving causal mediation analysis using distributed electronic health record networks

Electronic health record (EHR) networks provide unprecedented opportunities to study treatment mechanisms at scale, but mediation analyses across institutions are often hindered by privacy and governance constraints that restrict sharing of patient-level data. We developed a privacy-preserving federated mediation framework that...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17958v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ME · 2026-07-20 · Gabriel Dengler, Carlos E. Budde, Laura Carnevali

A Taxonomy of Distance Metrics for Time-Sensitive Importance Splitting: Timer Bounds, Resampling, and the Global Age

Importance splitting (ISPLIT) evaluates the probabilities of rare events in non-Markovian models. It requires a heuristic importance function (IFUN) that estimates the distance to the target. While including timer evaluations in the IFUN can substantially improve the effectiveness of ISPLIT, the existing time-sensitive IFUNs evaluate...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17939v1PDF
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Posted in stat.AP · 2026-07-20 · Karim Naguib, Roger Berché, Lu Li, Antonia Bevan, Sajan Khosla, Jessica Davies, Paul Metcalfe

PIONEER: Bayesian Joint Modelling of Mechanistic Tumour Growth and Time-to-Event Endpoints for Dynamic Prediction of Ongoing Oncology Trials

High-stakes decisions in oncology clinical trials must often be made while survival data remains immature: progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are heavily censored, few events have accumulated, and the primary endpoint may be months or years from reading out. What is available at interim data cut-offs is...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17908v1PDF
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Posted in math.ST · 2026-07-20 · Blanka Horvath, Wen Su, Wu Su, Binnan Wang, Ruixun Zhang

How Fast Do Signatures Learn? Statistical Theory and Applications for Path Regression

Many prediction and decision-making problems in operations research involve path-valued covariates -- data that evolve over time -- for which path signatures have become a canonical feature representation. Their use is justified by a universal approximation theorem, but this is an existence result: it guarantees that a finite-level...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17865v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ME · 2026-07-20 · Yingjie Zhang, Ziqi Chen, Chenlei Leng

CRT*: Conditional Randomization Testing with Heterogeneous External and Unlabeled Data

The conditional randomization test (CRT) provides a principled approach to conditional independence (CI) testing, guaranteeing exact type-I error control when the true conditional distribution is known. In practice, however, this distribution must be estimated, and estimation errors can inflate type-I errors, while high dimensionality...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17859v1PDF
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Posted in math.DS · 2026-07-20 · Surya Ratna Prakash D, Soumyendu Raha

Geometric Projection Particle Filtering under Model Uncertainty

Nonlinear state estimation under structural model uncertainty remains a central challenge in autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) systems. Classical estimators propagate states using assumed dynamics and incorporate measurements through posterior correction, which under mismatch leads to biased innovations, estimator...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17781v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ME · 2026-07-20 · Ben Swallow, Lars Brestrich, Victor Velasco-Pardo

Comparing Missing Data Methods for Estimating Average Treatment Effects Under Time-Varying Confounding: A Simulation Study

Missing data and confounding are common in real-world statistical applications, yet few studies have examined how imputation methods perform under time-varying confounding in binary variables, or how missingness mechanism, missing rate, missingness location and sample size jointly affect performance and the underlying identifiability...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17775v1PDF
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Posted in stat.ME · 2026-07-20 · Nana-adjoa Kwarteng, Guido Schwarzer, Adriani Nikolakopoulou, Theodoros Evrenoglou

Assessing the Impact of Model Assumptions in Network Meta-Regression: A Simulation Study

Network meta-regression (NMR) extends network meta-analysis (NMA) by synthesizing evidence on multiple treatments while adjusting for potential effect modifiers. By accounting for effect modification, NMR can reduce between-study heterogeneity and improve the validity of relative treatment effects, providing insight regarding...

💬 0 commentsarXiv:2607.17750v1PDF