arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through July 21, 2026 — 19:41:27 EST
Artificial transaction generation remains an important source of potential market manipulation on cryptocurrency exchanges, as it may distort reported liquidity and reduce market transparency. This study proposes a diagnostic framework for detecting unusual trading patterns based on complexity and statistical-structure measures...
Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored. We extend a supervised lexicon-learning approach to 10-K filings and their Item 1A...
The deep hedging framework of Buehler et al. (2019) trains a neural network policy, via Monte Carlo simulation of price paths and stochastic gradient descent, to minimize a risk measure applied to the terminal hedging error. In a recent stream of papers, my coauthors and I have referred to this technique as reinforcement learning...
Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) requires repeated risk-neutral expectation estimation, making it a natural test bed for quantum amplitude estimation, whose coherent amplification can in principle reduce Monte Carlo sampling cost. Whether this advantage survives realistic financial encoding and noisy hardware remains open. We develop...
Extremal dependence is naturally described by the angular law of large multivariate observations. We introduce anchored geodesic component analysis (AGCA), a dimension-reduction method for extremal angular laws on the positive unit sphere. AGCA approximates angular variation by great subspheres constrained to pass through a chosen...
Starting from the classic result of Wentzell, we derive a conditional forward equation and an associated stochastic Dupire PDE for a local-stochastic-volatility model (LSV). As an application, we obtain a density-weighted Rao--Blackwell estimator for the leverage function in LSV. We also derive an SPDE for a rolling expiry vanilla...
Divergence measures are essential tools for detecting distributional shifts in model monitoring, particularly crucial given the volatility of financial data. While the Population Stability Index is the most widely used measure, Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence offer distinct advantages. Jensen-Shannon...
Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets. An early LoRA adapter in this project appeared to reach roughly 80% directional accuracy; we show this is not evidence of skill. Over a long horizon in a rising...
During the 1999-2019 U.S. housing cycle, three empirical facts present a puzzle: in the boom period, the correlation between income growth and mortgage growth is (1) negative across ZIP codes within a metropolitan area, but (2) positive across metropolitan areas, and (3) the metropolitan areas that experience the worst bust also show...
Compute (computing power) is a scarce, capital-intensive input at the center of the AI economy. Compute capital expenditure and service flow already exceed 1% of U.S. GDP and are growing rapidly. The price of compute reflects uncertainty over AI adoption. The announced launch of compute futures turns this uncertainty into a tradable...
We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem in which an investor is evaluated relative to a non-replicable benchmark and seeks to control the persistence of benchmark-relative underperformance. We introduce a benchmark-relative drawdown-duration criterion that penalizes the expected discounted time spent in unfavorable...
Electronic over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity provision is increasingly shaped not only by the price of the next quote, but also by a dealer's accumulated standing with clients and platforms. We develop a stochastic-control model in which request-for-quote (RFQ) win ratios and streaming fill ratios feed back into future flow through...
Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in...
We develop a variational formulation of Kyle's model of informed trading that accommodates stochastic liquidity and multiple traded assets. The main equilibrium result is stated first: under a martingale dual condition, a matrix-valued martingale depth process generates a linear-Gaussian equilibrium with stochastic matrix-valued price...
Deep generative models are increasingly used as simulators for downstream decision-making under data scarcity, but in risk-sensitive applications their usefulness depends on rare adverse scenarios rather than typical samples. Standard generative objectives prioritize bulk distributional fidelity, leaving low-probability tails...
We introduce Self-Similar Generative Estimation (SS-GEN), a method for simulating multivariate tail events and estimating rare-event probabilities in both heavy and light-tailed settings. SS-GEN exploits asymptotic tail structure to decompose the tail distribution into an explicit radial component and a nonparametric angular...
We study optimal portfolio and consumption in a regime-switching multi-name credit market with default contagion. Defaults generate portfolio losses and alter the intensities of surviving securities. Under Cobb--Douglas utility, homogeneity reduces the HJB equation to a recursive ODE system indexed by the default states. Solving it...
In this article, we extend the theorem of heart\cite{Barwick_2015}, which implies Quillen's dévissage theorem by \cite{Efimov2025}, to generic small stable $\infty$-categories. To be precise, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition under when an exact functor between stable $\infty$-categories induces isomorphisms of...
The rapid progress of diffusion models highlights the growing need for detecting generated images. Previous research demonstrates that incorporating diffusion-based measurements, such as reconstruction error, can enhance the generalizability of detectors. However, ignoring the differing impacts of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty...
The rapid development of high-throughput sequencing technologies has led to an explosive increase in biological sequence data, making sequence clustering a fundamental task in large-scale bioinformatics analyses. Unlike traditional clustering problems, biological sequence clustering faces unique challenges due to the lack of direct...
Emerging applications in manufacturing, wireless communication, and molecular data storage require robust coding schemes that remain effective under physical distortions where codewords may be arbitrarily fragmented and partially missing. To address such challenges, we propose a new family of error-correcting codes, termed...
In narrow, unstructured underwater environments such as environmental monitoring and minimally invasive medical procedures, micro soft robots exhibit unique advantages due to their flexible movement capabilities and small size. At the same time, applying bionic technology to the structural design of micro soft robots can significantly...
Language models are increasingly used for social robot navigation, yet existing benchmarks largely overlook principled prompt design for socially compliant behavior. This limitation is particularly relevant in practice, as many systems rely on small vision language models (VLMs) for efficiency. Compared to large language models, small...
This paper addresses the estimation of signals with sublinear sparsity sent over the additive white Gaussian noise channel. This fundamental problem arises in designing denoisers used in message-passing algorithms for sublinear sparsity. From a theoretical perspective, the main results are direct and converse theorems in the sublinear...
Speech Emotion Recognition models typically use single categorical labels, overlooking the inherent ambiguity of human emotions. Ambiguous Emotion Recognition addresses this by representing emotions as probability distributions, but progress is limited by unreliable ground-truth distributions inferred from sparse human annotations....