arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 — 10:02:13 EST
Option quotes with bid-ask spreads do not point-identify the risk-neutral probability of a crash below a given threshold, nor the expected depth of the crash once the threshold is breached. Bounds computed separately for the two quantities can mislead, because their endpoints may be attained by different risk-neutral distributions. We...
The Word Problem has been a subject of intensive mathematical study for over a century, initially driving advances in combinatorial group theory and more recently emerging as a foundational hardness assumption in post-quantum cryptography (PQC). While generally undecidable, several families of infinite non-abelian groups exhibit...
Genome-scale modelling methods primarily predict reaction fluxes, whereas established high throughput experimental technologies primarily measure molecular species concentrations. This apparently paradoxical situation has arisen because implementing the non-linear constraints that represent reaction kinetic rate equations is...
Immediate Acceptance (IA, also known as the Boston mechanism) is commonly used to assign students to schools because it produces a Pareto-efficient matching if parents report their preferences over schools truthfully, unlike student-proposing Deferred Acceptance (DA). In this paper, we ask: does IA produce meaningfully better average...
AI agents are increasingly adept at tackling complex, long-running tasks. With the rapid surge of autonomous capabilities, human oversight is systematically lagging behind due to limited human-centered interfacing. Aiming to address this, we introduce AgentGUI, a user-friendly, locally hosted GUI for seamlessly observing and steering...
Muscle redundancy can be formulated as a constrained selection on a time-varying convex set of feasible activations. We introduce Torque Fiber Proximal Dynamics (TFPD), where activation evolves as the Euclidean projection of the previous state onto a convex polytope defined by torque equality and physiological bounds. TFPD is...
Let $V$ and $U$ be independent standard normal random variables. For a Borel function $φ: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$, let $P_φ$ be a version of the inverse regression $P_φ(y) = E[V \mid φ(V)+U = y]$, and let $F_φ(x) = E[P_φ(x+U)]$ be its Gaussian smoothing. We prove that $φ(v) \in \mathrm{argmax}_x \{ xv - x F_φ(x) \}$ for every real...
A red herring, an irrelevant passage added to a problem, corrupts a language model's reasoning and, through it, its final answer, while the form of the response survives untouched. The benchmark, called the Graduate Economic Reasoning Benchmark (GERB), is sixty graduate-level microeconomics problems, each a detailed setup with a...
This work is devoted to the mechanisms of dielectric response and electric conductivity of suspensions consisting of the nematic liquid crystal 5CB with different concentrations (from 0 to 10 wt.%) of ferroelectric BaTiO_3 nanoparticles with an average size of 24 nm. We revealed that the incorporation of nanoparticles influences...
Neural networks increasingly combine data across populations, time periods, and operating conditions to improve generalization. This raises a reliability question: whether a model refitted on pooled data preserves an action ordering supported by both sources. Case-Based Decision Theory (CBDT) formalizes this requirement through its...
Deep generative models (DGMs) are widely used for complex high-dimensional data and increasingly applied to spatial and spatio-temporal modeling. Their generated samples implicitly represent the learned data distribution and associated uncertainty. However, for real-world data, assessing whether DGMs have learned the underlying...
Automated code generation is becoming an important tool in quantitative finance, where large language models can generate option pricing implementations directly from mathematical model specifications. Validating such implementations, however, requires considerably more than conventional software testing: numerical pricing methods...
Bulk-Rashba spin splitting is forbidden in tetradymite topological insulators like Bi$_2$Se$_3$ or Bi$_2$Te$_3$, since their quintuple-layer stacking preserves inversion symmetry. We show that BiSbTeSe$_2$ escapes this restriction: in the Se-Bi-Se-Sb-Te sequence, the structure loses its inversion center, reducing the point group...
We prove the claim in the title and complete Parker and Rowley's classification (J. Algebra 2001) of which sporadic simple groups are completions of the Goldschmidt G3-amalgam.
We develop a general framework of identification and estimation for automatic debiased machine learning (DML) where the parameter of interest $θ_0$ is identified by a moment condition involving a nuisance $γ_0$ that may be high dimensional. We establish conditions under which the Riesz representer $α_0$, which is at the core of DML,...
This paper studies the willingness-to-accept/willingness-to-pay (WTA-WTP) gap under objective probabilities. Preferences over finite lotteries satisfy completeness, transitivity, continuity, weak independence, reference partition, and range dependence. Weak independence requires von Neumann-Morgenstern independence only for mixtures...
This paper characterizes a class of twice continuously differentiable objective-probability preference representations exhibiting endogenous reference dependence under risk. Weak rank-dependent utility (WRDU) preserves objective probabilities, partitions outcomes at an endogenous reference point, and evaluates lotteries through a...
A red herring, an irrelevant passage added to a problem, corrupts a language model's reasoning and, through it, its final answer, while the form of the response survives untouched. The benchmark, called the Graduate Economic Reasoning Benchmark (GERB), is sixty graduate-level microeconomics problems, each a detailed setup with a...
OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own...
Every widely followed Bitcoin cycle indicator (Pi Cycle, MVRV, Mayer, Puell) called turns precisely for a decade, then degraded in one sequence: precise, then early, then silent. This is one structural phenomenon. Across the four halving epochs (2011-2026), the per-cycle maxima of five top-calling oscillators decline monotonically...
Language models increasingly settle real resource tradeoffs on behalf of principals yet their economic preferences remain unobserved. We demonstrate their generation rule is isomorphic to the random utility model of discrete choice. This allows internal logit scores to structurally identify preferences. Estimating risk attitudes...
Why do some teams consistently mobilize collective effort and achieve superior performance while others struggle to coordinate action? We introduce Attention-Directing Ability (ADA), a latent team capability capturing how effectively members' interaction signals elicit engagement and coordinated responses from others. Extending the...
Economic stability and progress in modern technological societies depend on vigorous and independent public funding of science and engineering research. When peer review or funding decisions are perceived as politically directed, scientists, funding agencies, and the public react in coupled and conflicting ways. We an evolutionary...
Our main results are an upper bound on the asymptotic resurgence of the facet ideal of a graphic matroid in terms of the number of vertices and a lower bound in terms of the circumference. These bounds coincide for Hamiltonian graphs, which form the majority of graphs on $n$ vertices as $n$ tends to infinity. For simple $2$-connected...
We propose a stabilized version of the fully discrete Dziuk's method for the curve-shortening flow of a closed planar curve with piecewise linear parametric finite elements. With a carefully designed stabilization term, we are able to show a surprising discrete tangential stability of the Barrett--Garcke--Nürnberg (BGN) type under the...