arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 — 07:33:39 EST
Distributional shifts arise when the target deployment environment differs from the source environment that generated the training data. Robust learning frameworks such as Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) and Robust Satisficing (RS) aim to address this challenge, yet their finite-sample guarantees under such shifts, and...
We propose a robust barycenter for distribution-valued data by incorporating the Huber loss directly into the optimal transport cost. In contrast to metric-space Huber means, which apply the Huber loss to the Wasserstein distance after optimization, our construction acts on individual transport displacements, preserving quadratic...
In organized crime, membership moves fastest, deterrence capacity moves more slowly, and division norms move slowest. We model this as a three-stage game: division norms fix how every possible coalition divides its proceeds; the authority then attaches deterrence capacity to named members, before knowing which coalition will form;...
I consider an AR($p$) process that is observed every $q$ periods, either as a snapshot (stock variable) or as a sum over the sampling interval (flow variable). Under fairly mild assumptions, I derive the identified set for general lag lengths $p \in \mathbb{N}$ and sampling frequencies $q \in \mathbb{N}$, I bound its cardinality, and...
We consider the classical additive measurement-error model $X=Y+Z$, where the latent random variable $Y$ has unknown distribution $F_Y$ and the error $Z$ has a known distribution. We develop direct estimators for three functionals of $F_Y$: (i) $F_Y(x)$ at continuity points; (ii) interval probabilities $F_Y(y)-F_Y(x)$ when $x<y$ are...
We solve a natural bimatrix game related to graphs. We consider a finite directed graph $G=(V,E),$ where the strategy set of Player I is the set of vertices $V$ and that of Player II is the set of edges $E.$ There are two sets of positive weights ${\{α_e\}}_{e\in E}$ and ${\{β_e\}}_{e\in E}.$ If Player I chooses a vertex $v$ and...
This paper studies imperfect competition in general equilibrium when households and firms choose price-contingent schedules. Market clearing selects the price generated by those schedules, and each agent accounts for how its own behavior changes equilibrium prices. We derive household and firm optimality conditions, establish...
The dispersion of self-reported life satisfaction has been proposed and used as a comprehensive measure of societal inequality. A negative cross-country association between mean life satisfaction and its standard deviation has been read as evidence that this inequality is itself welfare-relevant, but critics have pointed to the...
Factor-MIDAS regressions forecast a low-frequency target by extracting common factors from a large panel of high-frequency predictors via principal component analysis (PCA). While PCA mitigates the curse of dimensionality, it relies on factor pervasiveness, an assumption often violated when factors are weak, as is common in...
We study a platform that prefers to sell the more profitable of two products. It designs an algorithm that determines the product the consumer encounters first, conditional on her best match. The algorithm simultaneously manipulates consumer attention (steers) and communicates information about match quality (informs). When the...
AI predicts; humans use its predictions to make decisions. These predictions are combined with human verification and analysis, queries to other statistical models, and so on. The economic value of an AI, therefore, depends on how it interacts with the surrounding decision environment. We describe the value of AI as part of this...
Urban decarbonization often raises the cost of travel, yet which neighbourhoods can adapt remains largely invisible under normal conditions. We leverage the 2026 US-Iran oil shock as a natural experiment, applying a hierarchical panel regression discontinuity design to 1.7 trillion point-of-interest visits across 122,000...
We study how organizations use frontier generative AI by linking ChatGPT Enterprise account records to usage, worker roles, task classifications, and public-company financial data through March 2026. These linked data enable a privacy-preserving analysis of adoption, worker roles, and message-level tasks at scale: for instance, the...
Designs for international climate cooperation face a trade-off between allocative efficiency and robustness to the erosion of institutions by defection, renegotiation, and political turnover. We formalize this trade-off in a stylized coalition-formation game in which membership is driven by two market-based channels, a membership...
Outcomes are increasingly regressed on a calibrated probability vector for unobserved class membership, and that vector is often coarsened to a hard label first. Under a constant-coefficient structural mean and conditional calibration, the observed-data problem is a partially linear regression of the outcome on the probability vector;...
We study two observable queues with identical service rates, serving agents who arrive stochastically over time. Agents join the queue that minimizes their expected waiting time. Assuming one queue uses the ubiquitous First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) service rule, we show that by simply modifying its service order, the other queue can...
We extend the concept of priority-neutral matching, introduced by Reny (2022) in the school choice context, to the roommate problem. We prove three main results. First, a blocking-neutral matching always exists in constrained roommate problems under arbitrary feasibility constraints (Theorem 1). Second, the set of stable matchings is...
This study proposes that firms move along an "organizational technology ladder": adopting one technology transforms hiring and work processes and builds skills and organizational capital that change the cost of adopting subsequent technologies. I study how firms' adoption of remote work technology during the COVID-19 period shaped...
Full justified representation (FJR) is among the strongest known satisfiable proportionality axioms for approval-based committee elections. Recent work has shown that an FJR committee can be found in polynomial time, but verifying whether a given committee satisfies FJR remains coNP-complete. We introduce FJR+, a strict strengthening...
How should institutions compare group diversity, and which group should they select when they value diversity and merit? We take a target-based approach that evaluates the entire group composition without treating any type as intrinsically diversity-enhancing. Because different diversity indices may rank groups differently, we instead...
We provide an estimator for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model that works with data at the level of individual trips. The estimator is a nested fixed-point algorithm that combines an upper bias-corrected linear regression problem with a lower individual-level perturbed utility maximization problem. We establish the...
Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and...
We study how differences in AI-generated financial recommendations are transmitted into individual portfolio choices. In an experiment with 400 employed adults enrolled in workplace defined contribution pension plans in South Korea, participants allocate a hypothetical pension balance across eleven products and may revise it after...
A number of recent empirical papers rely on a collective model to analyze the portfolio choice of spouses, their heterogeneous risk preferences, and intra-household bargaining. I study applications of this model and highlight some important shortcomings. In its classic form, the model generates a counterintuitive result: an increase...
We propose a comprehensive framework for solving overlapping-generations (OLG) models in continuous time with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. Our general characterization of equilibrium through the master equation operates on the joint distribution over the continuous idiosyncratic states, age and wealth. Our computational...