Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN

TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior using zigzag persistent homology, treating TabPFN layer representations as evolving point clouds. We construct a controlled benchmark of synthetic tabular tasks with known true probabilities and varied intrinsic topology, including warped circles, tori, spheres, Hopf links, trefoil knots, and Swiss rolls. Across these tasks, we find that the topology of TabPFN's internal representation geometry is strongly associated with dataset-level reliability; for example, the zeroth homology group $H_0$ fragmentation count correlates positively with mean absolute residual across controlled tasks, and this association strengthens in a high-resolution warped circle case study at large sample size. Harder geometries induce a dual topological signature: increased $H_1$ loop activity and increased $H_0$ fragmentation, while the $H_1$ persistence becomes shorter-lived. These descriptors correlate with Bayes error, mean absolute residuals, and overconfidence. Our results suggest that zigzag persistence diagnoses the reliability of the inferred in-context task geometry and provides a context-level view of when TabPFN operates in topologically stressed regimes.